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SmartDrivingCar.com/11.40-Crisis-10/15/23
40th edition of the 11th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
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SPIA Reacts: Crisis in the Middle East
Staff, Oct. 7, “…”
Read
more Hmmmm…. Another most
informative panel. If you haven’t, also watch:
The Outbreak of War In Israel- A Geopolitical Update, was given earlier this week by former U.S. Ambassador to Egypt & Israel, Daniel C. Kurtzer.
************
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Description automatically generated" title="" v:shapes="Picture_x0020_5"> SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 339 / PodCast
339 driverless communication, Gates invests, Tesla battery production
F. Fishkin, Oct. 15, “Driverless car communication with pedestrians? On episode 339 of Smart Driving Cars, Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host
Fred Fishkin chat about a report in The Verge on how Waymo is doing it. Plus Bill Gates invests in Glydways, Tesla battery production breakthrough, Model Y ridesharing in Tampa & more. Tune in and subscribe!
0:00 open
0:34 Princeton Scholars discussion on Israel and Gaza link in newsletter
1:56 The Verge report on How Will Driverless Cars Talk to Pedestrians-Waymo Has a
Few Ideas.
4:42 Glydways gets investment from Bill Gates for electric robotaxis using dedicated
lanes
13:09 Tesla officially releases API documentation for third party apps
15:15 Tesla Model Y vehicles being used by DASH in Tampa for affordable ridesharing
service
19:55 Tesla breakthrough in battery cell production at Gigafactory Texas
26:27 Upcoming Podcar City Conference in San Jose
27:56 Publication coming soon for new book: The Real Case for Driverless Mobility
by Alain Kornhauser and Michael Sena…and planning underway for 2024 Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit
************
[log in to unmask]"> How
will driverless cars ‘talk’ to pedestrians? Waymo has a few ideas.
Andrew Hawkins, Oct. 10, "
For years, developers have been working on ways for driverless cars to communicate intent to other road users, either through audio recordings or visual cues. Today, Waymo says it wants to be one of the first companies to
put some of these methods into practice.
The Alphabet-owned company’s driverless Jaguar I-Pace vehicles will use their roof domes, which are wrapped in LED displays, to communicate messages to other road users.
For now, the company is going with just two messages: for pedestrians in front of the vehicle, shifting grey and white rectangles meant to communicate that the vehicle is yielding to them, and for drivers behind the vehicle, a yellow pedestrian symbol to let
them know there’s a pedestrian crossing.
The symbols join other visual and audio cues that Waymo employs to “talk” to other road users. The company has used its roof dome to display
the initials of the customer who is hailing the ride and to signal to cyclists that a passenger intends to open the door. Waymo also uses external audio
alerts to communicate with emergency responders or to explain what the vehicle is going to do next, like rerouting..…." Read
more Hmmmm… Very interesting and constructive. Alain
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Revolutionizing Urban Mobility
Staff, Oct 12, “ A revolution in Personal Rapid Transit that provides ride hailing on demand.
Glydways is a new on demand, anytime, high capacity mobility system. It uses autonomous, personal Glydcars moving riders safely in dedicated lanes. It’s access for everyone, everywhere that costs a lot less
- and it is ready now.….´ Read more
Hmmmm… Great, but it clearly states that it requires “…
dedicated lanes …”. PRT has been a great mobility concept for more than 50 years achieving an unblemished safety record (Spectacular proof-of-concept
J ); however, its dependence on “dedicated lanes” has enabled only three (3) systems to actually give rides to customers (Morgantown,
Masdar &
Heathrow). Initial deployments with zero follow-on scaling (Abysmal proof-of-market
L). See Also ”
Bill Gates has reportedly invested in PRT startup Glydways“, Alain
[log in to unmask]">Tesla
releases official API documentation to support third-party apps
F. Lambert, Oct 12, “Tesla has officially released its API documentation to support third-party apps – after years of operating in a gray zone with an unofficial API.
For now, it is geared toward fleet management, but developers are hoping it is a first step toward creating a healthy app ecosystem….´
Read more
Hmmmm… Very interesting. Alain
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Volkswagen EV Orders Below Target, Cybertruck Details, Teslapens
R. Mauer, Oct. 13, " ➤ VW comments on EV orders, targets ➤ Kia EV day ➤
4680 battery storage video ➤ Cybertruck measurement ➤ Tesla Semi event details ➤ New referral program prize ➤ Update on Tesla fire story ➤ CATL Shanghai factory ➤ New Tesla merchandise ➤ Falcon Heavy launch ➤ Calendar Read
more Hmmmm…. Somewhat interesting;. 😁 Alain
[log in to unmask]">Sorry,
Elon! The Satellites of the Future Are Heading to Space Right Now
Christopher Sims, Oct 13, “.Elon Musk’s Starlink may soon face new competition from satellite companies offering internet service, available from anywhere on Earth where you can see the sky…
And last week Amazon launched the first two satellites of
what the company has said will ultimately be thousands in a network that will go head-to-head with Musk’s offering….”
Read more
Hmmmm… What??? Amazon launches “first two” last week and that makes them a potential competitor? To launch 2 satellites
seems like a really low bar to become a “potential competitor”. Plus at what cost per satellite as compared the price “Elon” is paying per satellite in orbi?. Plus Amazon didn’t use its own launch vehicle (Blue Origin. Which has yet to reach orbit, let
alone reach orbit using a reuseable booster). What???
C’mon Chris where’d that headline come from? C’mon WSJ!
Alain
[log in to unmask]"> Now
you can zip through neighborhoods of Downtown Tampa in Tesla Model Y SUVs.
Staff, Oct. 9, “The residents of Downtown Tampa, FL are now able to avail an affordable ridesharing option to move from one neighborhood to the other. This ridesharing service is named DASH (Downtown Area
Shared Hubs).
To make DASH more appealing, exciting, and sustainable, the Tampa Downtown Partnership uses a fleet of 6 Tesla Model Y electric SUVs for the ride service.
A DASH ride can be availed at $2 per person and a pool of minimum of 2 persons is required for a ride. Maximum 4 persons (excluding the driver) are allowed to share a single Tesla Model Y ride using the
DASH service. The rides can be booked using the DASH Tampa smartphone app for Apple iPhone and Android mobile devices (FAQs PDF
below)….” Read more
Hmmmm… I love the service concept of simply giving affordable shared rides between fixed locations. Congratulations on getting the mobility concept started. I’m looking
to do it in larger Operational Design Domains with Driverless Cars. Alain
[log in to unmask]">
Tesla announces 4680 battery cell production breakthrough
F. Lambert, Oct 11, “Today, Tesla has confirmed a significant breakthrough in 4680 battery cell production at Gigafactory Texas as it produced its 20 millionth battery cell at the factory.…
It now gives us some idea of the production rate since Tesla announced the production of the 10 millionth 4680
cell at Giga Texas in June.
Therefore, we know that Tesla produced 10 million 4680 cells in the last 16 weeks.
That’s an average of 625,000 cells per week, but it is fair to assume that production is now well above this average. Let’s say 800,000 cells per week, just to play it safe.
Tesla’s 4680 cell is believed to have a capacity of about 26 Ah, though it might have improved recently – there’s no way to know.
This means that Tesla’s 4680 cells are roughly 100 Wh and that Tesla is producing about 80 MWh of 4680 battery cells per week at Gigafactory Texas. At a battery pack capacity of 65 kWh, that would be enough
to produce over 1,200 vehicles per week.
We can slash that number in half for producing Cybertrucks with a battery pack of about 130 kWh, which is only an estimate of the potential battery pack capacity for the electric pickup truck…. ´
Read more
Hmmmm… Very impressive! Alain
*****
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Conference
San Jose, CA
Nov. 30 -> Dec. 1, 2023
*****
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6th SmartDrivingCar
Summit
May 29 (evening)
-> May 31, 2024
Princeton, NJ
********************
Previous SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast/PodCasts
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 337 / PodCast
337 Driveless Cars a Tough Sell?
F. Fishkin, Oct. 2, “Driverless
cars a tough sell? Not to people who need mobility. That's Alain's response to a piece in The Atlantic. Plus Mercedes Drive Pilot, Uber plays nice with taxi industry, Teamsters oppose Cruise Origin, Tesla, Microsoft and May Mobility. And Alain shares
his IATR presentation- Modernizing the Giving of Rides.
0:00 open
0:41 The
Atlantic headline.. Why Driverless Cars are a Tough Sell
8:03 Forbes
report.. Mercedes Benz Drive Pilot: The Self Driving Car Has (sort of) Arrived 9:40 The
Verge report: How Uber learned to Stop Fighting and Play Nice With Taxis
13:45
Teamster Union opposing exemption for building of Cruise Origin
18:50
Tesla missed third quarter delivery estimates..but…
20:50 Microsoft
announces new AI companion called CoPilot…umm…
23:13 May
Mobility announces software release focused on rider only operations
30:13 Alain
talks about his presentation at the IATR Conference in Arizona
41:34 Alain’s
IATR presentation slides and more
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 336 / PodCast
336 w Prof. Dan Sperling, UC Davis
F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, “With the swirling controversies surrounding robotaxis in San Francisco and beyond, some words of caution from Daniel
Sperling. The University of California, Davis, founding Director of the Institute of Transportation Studies joins us for episode 336 of Smart Driving Cars. Plus Cruise, Waymo, Governor Newsome's climate lawsuit against oil, Tesla's Optimus robot and more.
0:00 open
0:45 Daniel
Sperling , UC Davis, on his opinion piece for The Hill. “ Don’t Fall Prey to the Current Panic Over Automated Vehicles.
6:30 Alain’s
viewpoint along similar lines
13:33 A
business model focused on giving rides is needed
20:00 Sperling
says support for public transit is an obstacle
22:47 Policy
makers have an opportunity that they aren’t moving on
28:45 Ride
sharing has fallen by the wayside
32:45 The
Drive reports on robotaxi opposition in Austin while NPR piece is headlined Horseless Carriages Were Once a Lot Like Driverless Cars. What Can History Teach Us?
38:37 Tesla
has data not only on their crashes, but their near misses as well
44:00 Gov.
Newsome’s suit against oil companies 47:45 Newsome has also vetoed bill that would
have required safety drivers in automated trucks for at least five years.
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 335 / PodCast
335 w Ariel Wolf, Venable Autonomous & Connected Mobility
F. Fishkin, Sept. 20, “How long will NHTSA take to approve the Cruise Origin exemption to build without a steering wheel or pedals? Fred Fishkin
chats with the acting NHTSA administrator and co-host Alain Kornhauser and guest Ariel Wolf, who heads Venable's Autonomous and Connected Mobility practice offer insights. Plus Cathie Wood, Tesla, SpaceX and more. 0:00 open
0:42 Ariel
Wolf on Venable’s autonomous and mobility practice
2:37 Techstination
interview excerpts with NHTSA acting administrator on Cruise Origin
4:02 discussion
of the approval practice with Alain, Ariel and Fred
16:16 Cruise
has announced wheel chair accessible version as well
27:17 SF
Fire Chief statement that Cruise autonomous vehicle was not directly responsible for the death of a pedestrian
35:00 Cruise
CEO says backlash has been sensationalized
41:36 Allegations
against companies making mobility safer are concerning
49:40 Cathie
Wood says when it comes to self driving taxis ..it’s a winner take most market for Tesla
51:42 A
go ahead for Cruise Origin could always be corrected if need be.
53:10 Legal
changes needed and are being worked on
54:16 Rob
Mauer at Tesla Daily had interview with Musk biographer Walter Isaacson”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 334 / PodCast
334 Waymo autonomous vehicles safer than humans
F. Fishkin, Sept. 12, “Waymo and big re-insurer Swiss Re say Waymo's autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers. Tesla's Dojo supercomputer
sends shares higher. Cruise Origin on verge of getting okay. No steering wheels or pedals. Episode 334 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:30 Waymo
Swiss Re research shows Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are safer than human drivers
10:47 Tesla
shares jump after Morga Stanley analysts see Dojo supercomputer value
13:15 James
Douma explanation of FSD included in newsletter
23:00 And
Tesla Daily Rob Mauer highlights as well
23:30 GM
Cruise near approval from NHTSA for Origin vehicle without steering wheel or pedals.
28:00 California
bill requiring drivers in driverless trucks sent to governor 31:00 SpaceX Starbase
readies Starship 25
35:20 Just
back from Florida AV conference
36:50 Alain
impressed with EVTOL tech at Florida conference
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 333 / PodCast
333 The Dispatcher w/Michael Sena & Tampa-Moves Simulation w/Bryce Rasmussen’25
F. Fishkin, Aug. 30, “The Need for Driverless Vehicle Standards is the lead as The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins us from Sweden for the latest Smart Driving Cars. More highlights
from episode 333.. NHTSA, E-Fuels, China, Elon Musk demos the latest FSD and Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton '25, shows the results demo of the Interactive Person Trip Visualization tool from Princeton. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin...and
subscribe!
0:00 open
1:17 The
Dispatcher..Standards for Driverless Vehicles
10:39 Recommendations
for Standards
21:50 The
Dispatcher.. Rudderless at NHTSA
28:45 The
Dispatcher… Electrofuels or E-Fuels
32:00 The
Dispatcher.. China and Coal
36:08 Elon
Musk live streams latest FSD Beta
46:15 Bryce
Rasmussen, Princeton ’25, demos animation of Interactive person trip visualization
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 332 / PodCast
332 Right Market w/ Bryce Rasmussen’24
F. Fishkin, Aug. 24, “How can communities plan for autonomous mobility systems? There's a new Interactive Person Trip Visualization developed at Princeton University and Bryce Rasmussen, class of '25, shows us how it works. Episode 332 of Smart Driving
Cars with Alain Kornhauser and Fred Fishkin. Plus..Cruise, Waymo, San Francisco, Tesla and more.
0:00 open
0:41 Creation
of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen, Princeton class of ‘25
11:20 NY
Times has three reporters ride in Waymo robotaxis
16:42 Politico
reports Gavin Newsom sides with the robots in autonomous vehicle debate
20:43 Cruise
bringing robotaxis to Raleigh
22:40 Beginning
October 1 Pinellas’ SunRunner will no longer be free to ride. Why?
27:50 Results
and demo of Interactive Person Trip Visualization in Tampa with Bryce Rasmussen
56:00 Visualization
tool will be demonstrated at upcoming Florida AV conference and will become available to all
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 331 / PodCast
331 Wrong Market
F. Fishkin, Aug. 21, Following a crash with an emergency vehicle and a request from the California Department of Motor Vehicles, GM Cruise cuts San Francisco robotaxi fleet in half. What
Princeton's Alain Kornhauser suggests they should do next, plus Cruise losses, automated vehicle legal issues, Tesla and more. Tune in to Alain and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest.
0:00 open
0:24 Next
Big Future piece on apparent 2 billion dollar GM Cruise loss this year
9:20 Cruise
agrees to cut robotaxi fleet in half in San Francisco. Alain says should end service there to focus elsewhere
17:00 Alain’s
response to those who point to the robotaxi collision with an emergency vehicle
20:00 The
Verge has a report headlined Robotaxis are Driving on Thin Ice
22:00 GM
Authority says Cruise is now testing in Charlotte
28:00 A
diversion onto The Dinky
33:11 Juris
report spotlighting potential criminal liability for operation of automated vehicles
36:27 Tip
of the hat once again to Tesla Daily
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 330 / PodCast
330
CPUC decision
F. Fishkin, Aug. 12, “Robotaxi service in San Francisco gets the green light from the California PUC. Princeton's Alain Kornhauser outlines his testimony, where services go from here
and more on episode 330 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus...the big UPS contract, Tesla and the continuing efforts develop automatic emergency braking that works.
0:00 open
0:22 California
PUC okays around the clock robotaxi service in San Francisco
14:50 Alain
hearing statement to California PUC in support of the deployment
20:23 More
on the benefits of safe, affordable, driverless mobility and thoughts on how best to deploy
29:00 Robotaxi
operators should be able to deny service to riders who misbehave
34:24 Coverage
of the robotaxi issues needs to change. Too much clickbait.
41:00 Ride
hailing model not the right focus
45:07 New
UPS contract has created lots of demand for jobs there….but…
48:30 Reports
and video of Tesla vehicles on autopilot crashing into police and the automatic emergency braking issue
1:02:27 How
can automatic emergency braking be improved?
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 329 / PodCast
329 w/FL Senator Jeff Brandes & DASH’s Shuan Drinkard
F. Fishkin, Aug. 7, “Tampa Downtown Partnership head Shaun Drinkard and Florida Policy Project Founder Jeff Brandes join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the new Tampa DASH service that will provide affordable mobility
with a Tesla fleet of vehicles. Plus a preview of the Florida AV Summit, the latest headlines on Cruise, Waymo, Tesla, Luminar, NuView and more. Smart Driving Cars 329!
0:00 open
0:25 Tampa
to use Tesla Model Ys for new mobility service. Shaun Drinkard Tampa Downtown Partnership.
15:06 former
Florida State Senator Jeff Brandes on the Tampa DASH project
18:41 Cathie
Wood speaking at up Florida Automated Vehicles Summit
30:00 WSJ
headline: America’s Most Tech Forward City Has Doubts About Self Driving Cars
32:47 Slate
headline: As Cruise Expands to Los Angeles, Self Driving’s Breakout Moment Has Arrived
33:29 Brandes
on what AV activities are going on now in Florida
36:40 Cruise
reaches union agreement with electrical and janitorial workers in San Francisco
37:25 Luminar
AI push
40:02 NuView
plans space based LiDAR to map earth in 3D
40:35 On
the Tesla Front.. Highland production, Pepsi Tesla Semis and Texas Tesla customers are being offered unlimited overnight charging for 25 dollars a mon”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 328 / PodCast
328 w/ Wm. Cariss, Holman Growth Ventures +
Fishkin, Aug. 3, “On episode 328 of Smart Driving Cars, we're at the Holman Emerge conference in NJ focused on start-ups and the future of
driving, dealerships and mobility. Guests include Holman CEO Carl Ortell, President Chris Conroy, Homan Growth Ventures CEO Bill Cariss and Spiffy founder Scott Wingo.
0:00 open
0:50 Overview
of Holman
1:50 Fleet
business expanding in robots, etc.
3:00 role
of autonomy and investment in autonomous trucking firm, Gatik
5:44 future
of cars, driving, dealerships
9:00 Types
of start-ups that are of interest
10:20 Decision
to go outside company to find worthwhile technology
11:30 upcoming
book from Alain and Michael Sena focused on new mobility
14:00 Continuing
reinvention necessary
15:30 Scott
Wingo, CEO of Spiffy, app-based mobile auto repair and washing
17:00 What
is Spiffy doing that competitors aren’t
19:50 Growth
of service area and franchising
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast 327 / PodCast
327 Han’s the Best!
F. Fishkin, July 29, “A SF Taxi Alliance Board member takes a Waymo ride and says he felt extra safe! That's on top on episode 327 of Smart Driving Cars. That plus the latest from Cruise,
Tesla, Uber, SpaceX and more. Join Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for the latest in autonomous mobility.
0:00 open
0:37 SF
Standard takes Taxi Worker’s Alliance Board member for Waymo ride and he says he felt “extra safe”
09:40 Waymo
focusing efforts on ride hailing
20:00 Cruise
expanding to Nashville and more
21:10 Wired
report on legal saga of Uber fatal crash coming to end
28:45 TorqueNews
report on Musk confirming Tesla FSD v12 Alpha using new single AI model
33:15 SpaceX
Falcon Heavy launch 36:25 GM launching Hands Free Eyes On education program
39:56 The
Verge reports driverless car legislation still stuck in neutral
49:03 Alain
adds one more pitch for new mobility in NJ”
SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
326 /
PodCast 326 San Francisco robotaxis gain support from disability advocates
F. Fishkin, July 24, “Some disability advocates are voicing support for expanded robotaxis in San Francisco, a SF paper pits Uber against Waymo in a race, Cruise begins testing in Miami, Tesla begins production of DOJO supercomputer and talks to a major
automaker about licensing Full Self Driving. That and more on episode 326 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton's Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin.
0:00 open
0:28 Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion in San Francisco
8:08 San Francisco Standard pits Uber against Waymo in race. Clickbait.
12:40 Cruise begins initial testing for robotaxis in Miami
18:49 NY Times reports .. Watching for the Bus Stop Gallery
21:19 IATR Annual Conference in fall will have Waymo as an official sponsor
24:30 John Deere Moves Further in the Field of Autonomy
25:36 DOT accepting applications for the Reconnecting Communities and Neighborhoods Program
28:00 Tesla begins production of DOJO Supercomputer
31:10 Tesla in discussion to license full self driving to another major automaker
36:20 Washington Post piece on Tesla owners using steering wheel weights
Link
to previous 301 -> 325 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to previous 276 -> 300 SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Link
to 275 previous SDC PodCasts & ZoomCasts
Recent Highlights of:
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Meet Waymo One: The ideal third wheel for your first date.
Staff, Oct 7, “…”
Read
more Hmmmm… Is this
The Onion? No, it’s not funny! … Talk about taking the low road against your competition and being clueless about the real value of what you’ve spent billions creating. This is so deeply bad in so many ways. What are
we to understand? That Uber and Lyft hire creepy drivers? That the value proposition of Waymo is riders’ privacy to hookup in the backseat? WHAT? Astonishingly tone deaf. Waymo needs to rethink their entire public relations department and just have Ellie
Casson do it. She was absolutely great at
IATR/Scottsdale. And nothing could be worse than this ad. Alain
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Why Driverless Cars Are a Tough Sell
C. Friedersdif, Sept. 27, “Last week, I
asked for your thoughts on self-driving cars.
Replies have been edited for length and clarity….
“Our century-long love affair with all things automotive dooms the driverless concept to a niche market,” one reader argues….” Read
more Hmmmm… Maybe for those who are able to “Home Depot” (or do it themselves) their mobility…For the many, many others who
need a ride and can’t “Do it Themselves” for whatever reason (who are responsible for about 500 million personTrips each day), a driverless vehicle that provides a good ride is an enormous market opportunity whose ease and affordability might even make the
“Do it Themselves-er” ask “what the heck have I been doing burdening myself with the capX, parking, fueling, headaches???" Looking beyond the market opportunity and societal benefits, we take issue (again) with the premise that driverless vehicles are/should
be intended for private, single-family ownership. We push against the notion that these potentially-life changing modes of transport should be positioned as just another luxury good for the 1%. Also, is it really accurate to refer to a "century-long love affair
with all things automotive"? Or have capitalist forces compelled us to believe we love paying for, maintaining, driving, etc our own cars? I expected more from The Atlantic. Alain
Don’t
fall prey to the current panic over automated vehicles
D. Sperling, Sept. 17, “Skepticism, frustration, and even hostility met the California Public Utilities Commission’s decision last month to grant Waymo and Cruise permission to operate
automated vehicles in San
Francisco. The panic over AVs threatens to drown out the voices of those celebrating this technological advancement.
As transportation researchers, we aim to present pathways that embrace technological progress and improve public transportation while being mindful of the cynicism. AVs are not the
panacea to all transportation troubles, but let’s not discard this valuable innovation just yet. …
….AV companies have invested tens of billions of dollars testing this technology with the goal of improving safety and accessibility. Now it is time for better policies that will
enable scaling of this technology in a way that is in the public interest — that will improve safety for occupants and pedestrians, enable sharing, and provide greater accessibility to all riders. ” Read
more Hmmmm… Extremely well said.. Alain
NHTSA
says nearly half of all car seats incorrectly installed
F. Fishkin, Sept. 17, “….NHTSA says nearly half of all car seats to protect child safety are incorrectly installed. Acting Administrator Ann Carlson says the agency is offering
help during Child Passenger Safety Week. How? Carlson chats with Techstination's Fred Fishkin...
4:17 Status of approval process for
GM Cruise Origin vehicle without steering wheel or pedals.” Read
more Hmmmm… Certainly
car seats need to be correctly installed; however, where Fred goes @ 4:17 into the interview is important for improving
the quality of life of many, especially those who have been mostly left behind on the mobility spectrum. Response from NHTSA isn't the most satisfying. Alain
Company News, Sept 6, “Waymo and Swiss Re, one of the world’s leading reinsurers, partnered
in 2022 to advance risk assessment methodologies and approaches to evaluating safety of autonomous vehicles.
Today, we’re sharing new research led by Swiss Re which shows Waymo’s autonomous vehicles are significantly safer than those driven by humans. In the over 3.8 million miles that Waymo drove without a human behind the steering wheel across San Francisco, CA
and Phoenix, AZ, there were zero bodily injury claims and a significant reduction in the property damage claims frequency.
While the research community and general public have long asked whether an autonomous driver is safer than human drivers, the industry has faced challenges in developing a robust and well-calibrated human performance benchmark for comparison. This study addresses
these challenges by establishing a comparison baseline based on liability insurance claims data.
The study compares Waymo’s liability claims data with mileage- and zip-code-calibrated private passenger vehicle (human driver) baselines established by Swiss Re. Based on Swiss Re’s data from over 600,000 claims and over 125 billion miles of exposure, these
baselines are extremely robust and highly significant.
The findings indicate that in comparison to the Swiss Re human driver baseline, the Waymo Driver — Waymo’s fully autonomous driving technology — significantly reduced the frequency of property damage claims by 76% (a decrease from 3.26 to 0.78 claims per million
miles) when compared to human drivers. Furthermore, it completely eliminated bodily injury claims, a drastic contrast to the Swiss Re human driver baseline of 1.11 claims per million miles….” Read
more Hmmmm… Compelling findings from folks whose livelihood is focused on assessing safety. As the San Francisco deployment has demonstrated, Waymo passes
the proof-of-concept “Turing Test” for safety. However, they have yet to demonstrate that they can pass a proof-of -market test. Alain
Tesla
FSD v12: Breakthrough We've Been Waiting For?
Rob Mauer, Aug. 28, “➤ Elon Musk livestreams Tesla’s FSD Beta v12 ➤ Tesla
compute capacity updates ➤ Hardware 4 information ➤ Highland
/ Cybertruck updates ➤ Tesla lithium refinery progress ➤ Megapack
price reduction ➤ Piper Sandler issues note on TSLA ➤ Calendar." Read
more Hmmmm… Very perceptive perspective on FSDv12. Is FSDv12 close to passing Kornhauser’s “Turing Proof-of-concept” for driverless mobility? Alain
Elon
Musk Livestream of his FSD v12 drive
Brighter w/Herbert, Aug. 25, “"Elon Musk just livestreamed his Full Self Driving of V12 around Palo Alto Ashok Elluswamy Director of AI was with him”. Read
more Hmmmm… Interesting commentary on Elon’s LiveStream of FSDv12.. Alain
GM-backed Cruise is “just days away” from regulatory approval to begin mass production of its fully autonomous vehicle without a steering wheel or pedals, the company’s CEO, Kyle
Vogt, said at an investor conference Thursday.
Cruise first unveiled the Origin robotaxi in early 2020 as a bus-like vehicle built for the sole purpose of shuttling people around in a city autonomously. But since then, the company has been mired in a lengthy regulatory process before it can begin mass production.
The vehicle’s lack of traditional human controls means that Cruise needs an exemption from the federal government’s motor vehicle safety standards, which require vehicles to have a steering wheel and pedals. The Origin has neither.
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) only grants 2,500 such exemptions a year. There is legislation to increase that number to 25,000, but it is currently stalled in the Senate.
‘This
Experience May Feel Futuristic’: Three Rides in Waymo Robot Taxis
T. Mickie, Aug 21, “ “Hello, Tripp,” a disembodied woman’s voice said through the speakers of a driverless taxi that was about to pick up a fare near the colorful Victorian houses
known as the Painted Ladies.
“This experience may feel futuristic,” the voice said. “Please don’t touch the steering wheel or pedals during the ride. For any questions, you can find information in the Waymo
app, like how we keep our cars safe or clean.”
For several years, San Francisco’s hilly and congested streets have doubled as a test track for hundreds of driverless cars operated by Waymo,
an autonomous vehicle company owned by the Google parent company Alphabet, and General
Motors-owned Cruise…. “ Read
more Hmmmm… Although I included this article in the body of SDC 11.32, I am repeating it here so that I can include a letter-to-the editor that I sent the
NY Times, which is unlikely that the NYT will publish, so I’ll just include it here as follows…
To the editor:
While I applaud the Times for their seriousness of purpose in sending three reporters to determine, for themselves, if the driverless rides offered by Waymo (and Cruise) in San
Francisco are real and actually work, and their fair and un-sensationalized, balanced assessment, it is a shame that the PR around the enhanced quality-of-life opportunity for this form of mobility remains overlooked.
Instead of focusing on the tourist experience for those that already have the wherewithal of time, money and physical ability to be chauffeured around, I recommend that for the
next article you get the opinion of a formerly incarcerated individual who could have a night job, but can't get there because Muni
operates but 2 bus routes between midnight and 5 am, or a single parent who can't leave work to give their kids a ride to the doctor or to cello lessons. Or to the many people who find themselves in the unenviable position of having to ask a friend, let
alone a stranger, for a ride. Why not instead talk to people whose lives would be fundamentally improved if they had easy access to safe, equitable, demand responsive, affordable mobility 24/7/365, just like, maybe even better, than having their own car to
drive themselves.
By the way, we compute that in the 49 square miles of San Francisco there is a demand for about 2.1 million person trips every day. About 30% are well served affordably by Muni
(but require a subsidy
that is 4x the affordable fare) and about 10% can afford the luxury of being chauffeured by Uber/Lyft/taxi/limo. That leaves
more than 1 million that prefer to drive themselves or get a ride from a family member, friend or neighbor or don't improve their lives by going because, Muni's rides aren't suitable, Uber/Lyft/taxi/limo are too expensive, or they can't convince someone to
take them. Waymo (and Cruise) can safely serve all 2.1 million; however, they can make life changing differences to this last group that can’t afford to go. With casual ridesharing, Waymo/Cruise could achieve a 100 personTrips/vehicleDay productivity and
break-even average cost, without subsidy, of less than $2.50 /personTrip (~$2.43/personTrip, Public
Comment to the California Public Utility Commission, August 10, 2023 by Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser, Princeton University, also attached).
Now that’s high-quality, affordable mobility that delivers quality-of-life throughout the city.
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
… Alain
B. Wang, Aug. 15, “GM’s Cruise robotaxi service has expanded from 70 to 300 robotaxis operating in San Francisco and will soon expand to Phoenix, Los Angeles, Austin and Dubai. GM
Cruise had increasing losses of $561 million in the first quarter of 2023. This will be over $2 billion in losses in 2023. GM Cruise will having increasing billions in net losses until they reach profitable scale. IF GM Cruise grows revenue by 1000 to 2000
times (100,000% to 200,000%) by 2030 and achieves operational and financial efficiency then it would become very profitable. Robotaxi’s must continue to undercut Uber, taxi and public transit pricing to get the market share. This will take perhaps $100 billion
or much more cumulative losses to finally reach profitability.
Waymo financials is in Google Other Bets and were a lot of the Other Bet losses of $4.8 billion in 2020 and $5.2 billion in 2021 and $6B in 2022. Morgan Stanley analysts valued Waymo
at $175 billion in 2018, $105 billion in Sept 2019 and the Waymo valuation
estimate in 2023 is $30 billion….” Read
more Hmmmm… All
the more reason that focusing on serving the folks whom Uber/Lyft serve amounts to chasing the wrong customers. Those customers are simply too diffuse spatially and too needy to justify their high price. Being marginally cheaper (~20% discount) isn’t sufficiently
disruptive to expand this customer base and is inconsequential to the bulk of valued ride-hailing customers - those taking longer trips who tip well. Even if Cruise & Waymo got’em all, the financials aren’t pretty. Too few, too needy to end up contributing
anywhere near enough to have any hope for profit, even after bankruptcy, let alone an RoI on the initial investment.
Proof-of-market only makes sense when the fundamental advantages of driverless’ on-demand, spatial land temporal flexibility can be leveraged to offer really good mobility
at a very low price within sufficiently concentrated areas to people who need a ride within that concentrated area and are willing to put a little shoe leather into the game.
Such market disruptions happen every day in even not-so-tall buildings. Just think: if getting around in tall buildings required a “ride-hailing” service model, we would have
no tall buildings. You’d need an app, an elevator operator, a rating system, layers of public oversight, … but, you could go directly from the front door to your room… maybe??? No reason why the elevator service (easily accessible pick up and drop off,
on-demand 24/7, casual rid-sharing attendant/driver-free service) model can’t be enormously disruptive in attracting the loyalty of the vast number of people who need a ride and, also, to the many who find themselves forced into giving themselves a ride and
even some who can readily give themselves a ride.
In case I haven’t been clear, the ride-haling service model is not a sufficiently disruptive business model to afford the investment that driverless requires. Had it been easy
to do driverless and the Elaine Herzberg crash had not occurred, then maybe Uber/Lyft would be financial darlings. Unfortunately, driverless has proven to be really tough and Uber/Lyft are but taxis with a really nice app, but are forever burdened with providing
a living wage to an individual who services but one rider at a time, not only for that ride, but also the time waiting around for that rider and the time getting to that rider. The driver has very little opportunity to be more productive, since, apparently,
ride-sharing destroys ride-hailing’s service concept to an extent that is greater than can be restored by a cheaper price to the valued ride-hailing customers. Thus, no ride sharing, Moreover, the non-constant demand throughout the day induces a substantial
amount dead time further challenging driver productivity. Thus, as with taxis and limos, Under/Lyft ride hailing can’t be less substantially less expensive than taxis/limos and given the expected returns and life-styles of the Silicon Valley inventors of
ride-hailing it is not the right disruptive business model for driverless. The elevator business model of making it easy for anyone to get a ride any time from and to many places, with or without others, no app required and is such a good way to go that those
benefiting from that equitable accessibility might be willing to pitch in an make it even free because in the end it is so inexpensive to deliver. Now that’s disruptive!
If you want to learn more about the wrong business model for driverless, see Brian being interviewed in Tesla
Expert: Why Cruise and Waymo Will Go Bankrupt Alain
Robotaxis:
California Regulators OK 24/7 Self-Driving Car Expansion in San Francisco
M. Kupfer & I. Mojadad, Aug. 10, “San Francisco will enter a new era of driverless cars—whether residents and city leaders like it or not—after the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) gave autonomous vehicle companies Cruise
and Waymo the green light for unlimited expansion on Thursday.
In a 3-1 vote, the commission ruled to allow the companies to operate across the city 24/7 and charge passengers for the ride.
Commission President Alice Reynolds and commissioners Darcie Houck and John Reynolds voted in favor of resolutions allowing the companies to expand their operations. Commissioner Genevieve Shiroma opposed the resolution, saying that the CPUC lacked sufficient
information to evaluate the safety of autonomous vehicles and their impact on first responders.
Driverless Cruise and Waymo cars have long circulated through San Francisco and even ferried passengers through the city streets. But, until now, their operations have remained limited.
Cruise has been allowed to charge fares for rides between 10 p.m. and 6 a.m. and offer free rides at all other times. Waymo has only been allowed to charge for rides with a human safety driver in the vehicle.
Now both companies will be able to grow their operations in San Francisco....
A Long Meeting With Passionate Comments:
Thursday's session started at 11 a.m., with the commission hearing hours of public comment and ultimately voting on two resolutions to allow Cruise and Waymo to operate across the city 24/7 and charge passengers for rides.
A long line of supporters and opponents waited on Van Ness Avenue to enter the commission building ahead of the meeting.
.….” Read
more Hmmmm…
Listening to almost 4 hours of one-minute public comments from those in-house @ the CPUC meeting, I was deeply moved by the challenges and acute mobility needs facing many San Franciscans. While it's true that a segment of the community can drive themselves
or afford, without a second thought, to just pull out their cell-phone to receive instantaneous gratification via Limo/taxi/Uber/Lyft, there is a significant population that continues to be overlooked. And as I have been saying over and over again, part of
the incredible potential of driverless is to provide everyone with safe and affordable means of getting from point A to point B.
I also heard substantial fear in the public comments. Fear of marginalization ("I use a wheelchair; how can a driverless vehicle be useful to me?"), fear of unemployment ("I have been working as a taxi/Uber/Lyft driver for years.
How will I feed my family if driverless cars expand service?"), and safety fears (collisions, interference with emergency vehicles). These fears are real and important to address. So what I cannot fathom is why the PR departments of Waymo, Cruise, etc. are
not doing a better job educating the public. I understand why The San Francisco Standard, WSJ, and any for-profit media repeatedly highlights slick, easy stories (at the best) and click-bait at the worst to elicit emotional responses and continued readership,
but where is the professional journalism? Nuanced, thoughtful reporting exists, but is seriously overshadowed by the glib (like today's sensationalized non-news about sex in mobility systems.). Where are the discussions about how driverless car companies are
not trying to eliminate taxi services or put working people out of business or neglect the physical mobility needs of many riders, but instead are seeking to be one of many mobility choices? Where are serious investigations of what current car companies and
law makers are doing to address human misbehavior in typical cars - texting/distracted driving, driving while under the influence, jay walking, speeding, tailgating, and any other number of unlawful activities that imperil us? How do, say, last year's avoidable
collisions that resulted from driver misbehavior compare with all driverless "misbehaviors" of the past 5 years? I implore those who are interested in technology, public safety, environmentalism, smart cities, and mobility rights, to spend the necessary time
to consider the actual potential societal benefits that driverless vehicles might afford and to collaborate in designing safe, equitable, affordable systems that benefit the collective.
OK, rant over, climbing down off that particular soap box.... :-)
Once the proceedings allowed remote comments, I contributed a one minute summary of the following, which I submitted in writing:
Public Comment to the California Public Utility Commission, August 10, 2023
by
Dr. Alain L. Kornhauser, Princeton University
My name is Alain Kornhauser. I am Professor of Operations Research & Financial Engineering at Princeton University, and Faculty Chair of its Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering activities. The application of automation
to improve mobility and quality of life in cities has been the hallmark of my career as a teacher and researcher, which started in January 1971. I am about to start my 52nd year at Princeton.
I speak today in support of the deployment of safe, affordable, equitable, sustainable, and high-quality mobility to improve the lives of all San Franciscans. Such mobility is not widely available today, neither in San Francisco
nor anywhere else in the world.
It can be delivered only through the deployment of vehicles that remove the high cost of the driver, which represents more than 50% of the cost of a ride, whether it is in a taxi or a bus.
Operation of driverless mobility has been demonstrated by Cruise and Waymo. They have shown that vehicles without drivers can deliver safe demand-responsive rides 24/7, but thus far have focused only on the technical solution,
not on the real value to society.
Affordability is the real value proposition, because the cost, at scale, for driverless mobility is really inexpensive, especially in comparison with the true cost of a driver to wait around to be summoned, then to get to a customer,
and finally to give that customer a ride.
Ride sharing further cuts the cost in half, which I strongly recommend that you endorse.
This low cost of giving a ride can enable a fare structure that supports a profitable operation that is attractive to all but the very poorest residents, for whom free service could readily be afforded by philanthropy.
We find that on a typical day, San Franciscans would like to take about 2.1 million personTrips that originate and terminate in this 7-by-7, 49 square mile city. Each is longer than a 10 minute walk (one-half mile). The average
length is 2.9 miles; the 90th percentile is 5.4 miles, and the longest is 8.5 miles.
We estimate that roughly 50% of these trips can and are taken by people who have the wherewithal to drive themselves. Of the other 50%, less than 10% take transit/taxi/Uber/Lyft/Limo. The rest “get a ride” from a family member
or friend or many don’t go because they can’t get or can’t afford a ride.
The biggest societal reason for the CPUC to approve this service is the improved quality-of-life that driverless mobility services can deliver to those who can’t afford a ride, can’t get a ride from a family member, or who find
themselves in the unenviable situation of having to ask for a ride from a neighbor or stranger. (Another substantial benefit comes from reducing the dead-heading that is incurred by taking someone someplace and then having to go back and pick them up.)
We believe that a well-managed fleet serving these customers can achieve vehicle productivities of 100 personTrips/day, with Average Vehicle Occupancies of 2.0, total costs of under $0.85 per personTrip mile, and a break-even
fare, without subsidy, of $2.43 per personTrip.
A fleet of 5,000 vehicles could readily serve 500,000 personTrips or 25% of the daily San Franciscan personTrips (excluding tourists).
With respect to impact on labor, by far the largest elimination of driving by humans is to the family and friends who would have given most of the rides that would switch to this service.
Those who now use taxi/Uber/Lyft/Limo can largely afford those services today and will likely continue to use those services.
Those customers who are conveniently served by public transit will continue to use public transit.
Moreover, there may not be any loss of existing jobs, while many new jobs are going to be created to maintain and oversee driverless vehicles that will enhance the quality of life for all members of the community, especially those
who, today, do not have access to affordable high-quality mobility.
Most relieved are the family members and friends now giving the many rides.
In summary, this is why I believe the City of San Francisco should approve the 7x7 deployment of driverless vehicles.
1. They are the best way to provide high-quality mobility to the large percentage of the population who cannot drive or who cannot afford to own a car and drive themselves. Taxis are too expensive, and public transportation does not serve their needs to
get where they need to go when they need to get there.
2. Improved mobility for those who are unserved today means that more people can get to jobs, health care, educational opportunities, and all the services that improve people’s lives.
3. Making good transportation affordable is better than using tax money to subsidize transportation solutions that do not meet the needs of the city’s citizens.
4. Driverless vehicle technology employs all of the sensing equipment that is making cars safer than they have ever been. Driverless vehicles are already well on the way to being ready to deliver safe rides within urban areas. With the proper guidelines
in place for where, when, and how these cars can operate, they will become even safer.
Thank you... " Alain
Tampa adds fleet of Tesla SUVs for new mobility
option around city
Andrew Harlan, July 31, “The Tampa Downtown Partnership announced the launch of DASH, a new service featuring Tesla SUVs that will carry folks to 20 different spots around Tampa. The trip will cost just a few dollars, and an official
route map will be revealed later in August.
DASH is described as an innovative new option to travel around fast-growing Downtown Tampa. This service will zip passengers through the city with low-cost shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown….” Read
more Hmmmm… Fantastic!! Tampa becomes the first MOVES-style mobility system in the world to ”…zip passengers through
the city with low-cost shared rides between more than 20 different hubs located across Downtown…” providing “Safe, Affordable, Equitable, Sustainable, High-quality” rides. Hopefully, Trenton can become the 2nd where We’ve caledl the Hubs
“Kiosks” (or “Hubs” or ??) with a vision to evolve to driverless operation so that the cost to operate the service becomes truly Affordable. 😊 Alain
We Took
a San Francisco Cabbie for a Driverless Car Ride. He Had Opinions
H. Li, July 27, “Barry Taranto doesn’t feel any immediate threat to his livelihood from the rise of the driverless car. But this long-time San Francisco taxi driver is still angry that they exist.
As a board member of the San Francisco Taxi Workers Alliance, Taranto has been an
outspoken critic of Uber and Lyft. But now, he finds himself again besieged by brand-new technology on the road.
“The city is a mess,” Taranto said. “Adding these autonomous vehicles is going to cause more congestion.”
As part of The Standard’s series on the rising
trend of driverless cars in San Francisco, we took Taranto on a ride—his first—to see what he thought about the experience.
As part of The Standard’s series on the rising
trend of driverless cars in San Francisco, we took Taranto on a ride—his first—to see what he thought about the experience. … here we go again, Han is trying to sabotage Waymo & Cruise again. So sad!...
“I’m interested to see how this particular vehicle handles different situations,” he told The Standard, “especially during the daytime.” …
Amid busy daytime traffic, the ride was a bit challenging, but the small SUV traveled smoothly and slowly through San Francisco’s complex topography.
“I've dealt with [passengers] getting upset that you are driving so cautiously that you're stopping at practically every light,” Taranto said, criticizing the Waymo’s slow speed— most of the time under 30 mph. In San Francisco’s dense
area, many streets have a 25 to 30 mph legal speed limit. … What does Taranto do to not stop for red lights, go through them? I’m sure he doesn’t! He likely works hard to reassure his customer to relax and that they’ll
be fine! …
However, Taranto admitted to a feeling of extra safety. … Wow! Bingo!!! “Turing Proof-of-Technology”
passed by Taranto with an “extra safe”! Wow!!... (my emphasis). " Read
more Hmmmm… Never mind! My bad!! Han, you’re the best!!! After arranging such a great testimonial, how can the CPUC not vote approval on August 10. Taranto’s
other challenges are all readily solvable… more Waymos, less wait; recommendations of better routes can easily be incorporated; doing kiosks instead or hailing can vastly improve boarding and alighting by everyone, especially those that have special needs;
and, as far as congestion goes, ride sharing and the opportunity to fleet manage the “getting to the next ride and from the end of the last ride” will incur fewer non-rider miles than Taranto, the members of the San Francisco Taxi Worker Alliance and Uber/Lyft
drivers can do on their own as they move around rider-empty as they, today, seek their next customers. Han, Thank you!! You arranged THE best testimonial! Alain
Exclusive:
Disability advocates push for robotaxi expansion
M. Dickey, July 21, "San Francisco's LightHouse for the Blind and Visually Impaired is among a group of community organizations urging state regulators to approve Waymo's permit that would enable the self-driving car company to
receive payments for its around-the-clock service in San Francisco.
Why it matters: Community organizations that advocate on behalf of people with disabilities argue autonomous vehicles are safer and provide more accessibility and independence than traditional ride-hailing services, and hope the permit will encourage expanded
services.
What's happening: In an open letter posted Friday, more than a dozen community advocacy groups urged
the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) to "approve Waymo's permit at the earliest possible opportunity," arguing driverless cars "can ensure this next generation of transportation is more inclusive than ever."
In addition to LightHouse, other groups include the San Francisco LGBT Center, Self-Help for the Elderly and the Epilepsy Foundation of Northern California.
Read
more Hmmmm… Excellent! Thrilled to see that communities are advocating for MORE Waymo/driverless services, and that
their requests are getting at least some media attention. We are hoping that many more groups follow suit. Wouldn’t it be great if companies like Waymo focused on the needs of similar community groups AND did a better job publicizing their progress in terms
of delivering safe, affordable demand-responsive/high-quality rides? All too often the stories intended to catch the public eye are written by those who don’t actually need a ride and who don’t seem to care about the potential of driverless services to disrupt
the giving rides market for the betterment of society [see below]. The fact that “more than a dozen” advocacy groups are joining to lobby for Waymo’s permitting is proof that they (and Cruise) meet the Caudill
Corollary: “Proof-of-Community Value & Sustainability”. Alain
Editorial: Cruise and Waymo have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Test” for Proof-of-Technology
A. Kornhauser, July 14,”Happy Bastille
Day! ” What a day for me to write my first editorial. Fane 24 begins its Bastille Day: A brief history of France’s July 14 national holiday… “Bastille
Day” is known in France simply as “le Quatorze Juillet”, a reference to the date on which it
is held. July 14 became an official national holiday in 1880 to commemorate key turning points in French history. … Today, July 14, 2023, commemorates for me the turning
point in autonomousTaxi (aka aTaxi, roboTaxi) history to commemorate aTaxi’s passage of the “Turing (Kornhauser) proof-of-technology” test, as written in Wikipedia… “The Turing
test, originally called the imitation game by Alan
Turing in 1950,[2] is a test of a machine's
ability to exhibit intelligent behavior equivalent to, or indistinguishable
from, that of a human. Turing proposed that a human evaluator would judge natural language conversations between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like responses. …” …
Kornhauser’s "Proof-of-Technology” version of the Turing Test, as it might appear in Wikipedia, would be “… a machine's ability to give a ride equivalent to, or indistinguishable from, that of a human. Kornhauser proposed
that a human evaluator would judge rides given in an Operational Design Domain between a human and a machine designed to generate human-like rides given in that Operational Design Domain. …”
After spending three days in San Francisco listening to and engaging in discussions describing the testing of driverless cars by Cruise and Waymo, and getting rides given by humans and by machines designed to give human-like rides,
I've come to the conclusion that, if I kept my eyes closed, I could not tell if a human or a machine was giving me the ride. Rides were indistinguishable. Furthermore, since their simulations and data-supported real-world testing experience have more than
satisfied the safety equivalence condition by exceeding it, I can declare that both Cruise and Waymo have passed the “Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology Test”
That is an enormous accomplishment. I for one/many/most/essentiallyAll New Jerseyians can’t wait for Cruise and/or Waymo to assemble sufficient machines, adjust them to address some of the quirks of a Trenton/Mercer County ODD,
a Perth Amboy/Middlesex County ODD, a Patterson/Pasaic County ODD, a Newark/Essex County ODD… and offer human-like rides to us. I’m certain Cruise and/or Waymo will find us grateful, thankful, appreciative of the improved quality-of-life that they’ll be able
to profitably deliver to so many of us in New Jersey. By coming to New Jersey, they'll go beyond the “Turing (Kornhauser) Proof-of-Technology" test to pass the “Kornhauser Proof-of-Market" Test. Alain
Should
your car prevent accidents, period?
F. Fishkin, July 4, “Would you want to own a car that would simply stop most accidents from happening? What about having that kind of car for your children?
At Princeton University, the faculty chair of autonomous vehicle engineering, Alain Kornhauser, my co-host on the Smart Driving Cars podcast…says many vehicles today are equipped with enough technology or could be equipped with enough technology, to simply
not permit excessive speeding, tailgating and other forms of reckless driving and could prevent the vast majority of collisions…along with the associated deaths, injuries and costs. The question to ponder is….is that something we want as a society?
The technology is ready and waiting. The many who have suffered injuries or lost loved ones…would likely say yes. What about you? What about regulators and carmakers? …” Read
more Hmmmm… Of course. Fred and I have for years said there are 3 groupings of SmartDrivingCars:
* SafeDrivingCars… exactly what Fred is talking about. Their value proposition is they keep the driver from misbehaving if that misbehavior is likely to lead to a crash of any kind.
* SelfDrivingCars… that perform the driving functionality when the driver remains engaged in overseeing the automated driving and remains completely capable of reengaging in the driving process within very short notice. Their
value proposition is the delivery of comfort and convenience to the driver.
* DriverlessCars… that performs all of the driving functionality. No assistance is required or desired to be done by any of the vehicle occupants. These operate as well with or without any person in them. Everyone inside is
a passenger. Their value proposition is purely an economic one in which no human labor expense is incurred in the provision of mobility. This economic benefit can be profound in not only substantially reducing the cost of mobility but also enabling levels
of service and vehicle utilization that are substantially better than can otherwise be achieved. Alain
San
Francisco’s fire chief is fed up with robotaxis that mess with her firetrucks. And L.A. is next
R. Mitchell, June 26, “Robotaxis keep tangling with firefighters on the streets of San Francisco, and the fire chief is fed up.
“They’re not ready for prime time,” Chief Jeanine Nicholson said….
State regulators track robotaxi
collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.
But the Fire Department does. Since Jan. 1, the Fire Department has logged at least 39 robotaxi incident reports…
State regulators track robotaxi
collisions, but they don’t track data on traffic flow issues, such as street blockages or interference with firetrucks.
The Fire Department incidents include reports of robotaxis:…
Safety data censored
In 2021, the DMV joined with Waymo on a court-approved
deal to allow driverless car companies to censor not only trade secrets but basic information on safety performance, including most details of collision reports as well as information on how the company handles driverless car emergencies
The industry is tight with the information it releases to the public about its operations on public roads.
Waymo won’t say how many cars it runs in San Francisco. Cruise said it operates 150 to 300 cars but won’t be more precise. Neither company will say how large its fleet will grow, or how quickly. Neither Waymo nor Motional will say
how many robotaxis they’re testing in Santa Monica and L.A….” Read
more Hmmmm… Devastating in so many ways. The SF “proof-of-market” is a train wreck! Time for a major pivot! Watch
PodCast 323 with Russ. Alain
A Driverless Contest
for Mid-Size Cities
K. Pyle, June 14, “A benefit of travel is the random conversations with strangers that cause one to look at the world in a slightly different way. For instance, standing in the airport security line this week, a lady from Little Rock,
AR explained that Uber and Lyft no longer serve the hometown of the Bill Clinton Presidential Library.
[Fact check, according
to its website, Lyft and Uber, as well as other local providers serve the Clinton National Airport.]
She said their apps indicated that their respective services were not available. She believes this happened as a result of the pandemic.
[Fact check; Perhaps there still is a
dearth of drivers as reported in 2021.]
She described the taxi service in the Little Rock area as “awful”. It takes an hour and a half to get one. She also doesn’t feel safe in a taxi especially compared to Uber/Lyft…
If her perception of the limited mobility choices is representative of the population, perhaps Little Rock would be a great use case for a driverless service. I forwarded this question to Princeton Professor Kornhauser and Michele
Lee of Cruise for them to ponder and look forward to any feedback they might have (Kornhauser comments about this in the latest SmartDrivingCars podcast).
As background, the three of us serendipitously converged at CES2023
and talked about mobility challenges. In a soundbite from that interview, Lee explains the challenges and opportunities for improving mobility and questions whether she could make the journey to Alain’s house. There are glimpses of her entering and securing
her wheelchair in the Cruise, driverless Origin vehicle….“ Read
more Hmmmm… Check out ZoomCast322 below.
Be sure to also look at Ken’s embedded video with Michelle. Alain
Watch: A
conversation on the U.S. autonomous vehicle industry
Axios events, June,7, “On Wednesday, June 7 in Washington, D.C., Axios transportation correspondent Joann Muller and business reporter Nathan Bomey hosted conversations exploring the growth of the American autonomous
vehicle industry. Guests included Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.), Rep. Bob Latta (R-Ohio), and National Disability Institute director of health equity Elizabeth Layman. A View from the Top sponsored segment featured Cruise chief legal and
policy officer Jeff Bleich….
Rep. Bob Latta discussed how driver safety is informing congressional efforts to accelerate autonomous vehicle regulation.
1. On rising deaths from traffic accidents due to driver error:…
Sen. Gary Peters highlighted strong U.S. ambitions to lead in developing the technologies needed to support the growth of a domestic autonomous vehicle industry.
1. On competition to be a leader in the future of mobility:…
Elizabeth Layman explained how autonomous vehicles could expand job prospects for people with disabilities in providing more options for transportation.
1. On a recent National Disability Research report studying the impacts of AVs for people with disabilities:…”
Read more Hmmmm…
Watch attached video, and…. All those initiatives are very important, but the highest value “low hanging fruit” is Origin’s fundamental ability to provide affordable, high-quality mobility to the large number of people who “need a ride”.
Many of those people today, don’t get to go where they wanted to go at the time they wanted to go because, they couldn’t “get a ride”. Some went through extra-ordinary “pain” to get the ride they got, but unfortunately, the pain
they incurred in getting that ride diluted the value and quality-of-life they could have gotten had the ride not been so challenging to get. Those that didn’t go, did something and got some personal value in doing that, but got less value than if they could
have gotten a high-quality affordable ride to where they really wanted to go.
Origin, properly deployed and operated, especially in MOVES-style fashion,
can readily deliver those rides safely and is “Made in America” and environmentally responsible and can readily use its flexibility to better serve the needs of those with disabilities. Alain
NHTSA
Proposes Automatic Emergency Braking Requirements for New Vehicles
Press release, May 31, “The U.S. Department of Transportation’s National Highway Traffic Safety Administration today announced a Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking that would require automatic emergency braking and pedestrian AEB systems on passenger cars and light trucks. The proposed rule is expected to dramatically reduce crashes associated with pedestrians and rear-end crashes.
NHTSA projects that this proposed rule, if finalized, would save at least 360 lives a year and reduce injuries by at least 24,000 annually. In addition, these AEB systems would result in significant reductions in property damage
caused by rear-end crashes. Many crashes would be avoided altogether, while others would be less destructive.
“Today, we take an important step forward to save lives and make our roadways safer for all Americans,” U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg said. “Just as lifesaving innovations from previous generations like seat belts
and air bags have helped improve safety, requiring automatic emergency braking on cars and trucks would keep all of us safer on our roads.” …” Read
more Hmmmm… This is substantial and you must read Notice
of Proposed Rulemaking which contains the details, especially page 14 (interesting that it states:”… all speeds above 10 km/h (6.2 mph), even if these speeds are above the speeds
tested by NHTSA…”. Does this mean that If I’m doing x over the speed limit, say 100mph, the system must remain functionable and very rarely suffer from false positives. Fantastic!
Also pay attention to the phase “imminent collision” that is supposed to trigger into action such a system. One must be very precise in the definition of “imminent” (is it really “1.6 seconds to collision” or ???). I might suggest
that nothing is imminent. There is a physical process that evolves over time from a state in which everything in “hunk-dory” to a time when one is between the “rock & hard place”. Maybe the Advance Driver Assistance System (ADAS, intelligent cruise control,
et al) should be communicating with the AEB so as to avoid, as much as possible, ever getting to that magical “imminent” point. The more that can be done to prepare and begin to do things as one passes through 2.0, 1.9, 1.8, 1.7, 1,65, 1.625, … so as to
raise back up the time to collision to 1.65, 1.7, 1.8, 1.9. 2.0, .. infinity, the better!
If this is done well, the driver may not even be aware that it is happening. Then: No complaints! No taking the car back to the dealer and claiming it is a lemon! No or greatly reduced “false imminent train wrecks” (especially
when traveling at high speeds!!!). Doing this well delivers enormous value to the driver and society!
Here is what Neal
Boudette of the NY Times and Andrew
Hawkins of Verge wrote about this. Alain
Don’t
Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT. Don’t be Complacent, Either.
Chunka Mui, April 28, “If you’re trying to decide how to invest in Generative AI and ChatGPT, take special heed of Amara’s
Law,
We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.
This caution is especially warranted for technologies that rocket so quickly from research playthings to media headlines, like ChatGPT.
Don’t succumb to the hype or the hysteria. Don’t be complacent, either. Instead, before making any big decisions or strategic investments, take time to understand the technology and its applications, implications and limitations
from your own organizational and personal context. And to really understand it, remember the observation of Marvin
Minsky, the cognitive scientist and cofounder of the MIT AI Laboratory:
You don’t really understand something if you only understand it one way….” Read
more Hmmmm… Additional good thoughts from Chunka: “We’re just a few days past Mother's Day, maybe that's what brought my mind to the
phrase “Ai ai aiii...” in response to all the headlines around AI these days. That was something my mom used to say in exasperation when things got a little carried away around my house as a kid.
Don’t get me wrong, as someone with a front row seat during earlier up and down eras of AI, I find the recent progress and tools amazing, almost even magical. But, both the hype and hysteria are a bit too breathless. As one eminent AI scientist recently said,
"Calm down people. We neither have super powerful AI around the corner, nor the end of the world caused by AI about to come down upon us.”
Hence the theme of three of my recent articles, one on AI in general and the others looking more specifically at AI in Health Care and Insurance is the same: Don’t panic. Don’t be complacent. Instead: think big, start small and
learn fast, guided by a robust future history.
1. Don’t
Fall for the Hype or Hysteria About ChatGPT. Don’t be Complacent, Either.
2. How
AI Could Reshape the Future History of Health Care (for the Better and Worse)
3. 6
Words to Focus Your AI Innovation Strategy
Hope you enjoy them. Please like, share and comment if you can. That really helps the bots know to spread the word (and would have made my mom smile).
Cheers, and may every day be a Happy Mother’s Day for all the moms in your life.” I couldn’t agree more. Alain
Waymo
doubles robotaxi service area in Phoenix in bid to grow driverless trips tenfold
K. Korosec, May 4, “Waymo is doubling its commercial robotaxi service area in the Phoenix metro area, an expansion that will add new suburbs and connect previously isolated sections
of the sprawling and car-dependent desert city.… “ Read
more Hmmmm… This has the potential to be important news.
Phoenix has been a great “Proof of Technology/Safety” for Waymo. Safe, driverless mobility has been established in a substantial Operational Design Domain (ODD). The objective of that “Proof of Technology/Safety”
was: operate safely throughout the ODD without attendants. The performance metric was essentially no disengagements and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD with an attendant on board. Then pull the attendant and demonstrate essentially no disengagements
and essentially no crashes throughout the ODD.
Proof of Market requires the service be attractive enough such that sufficient individuals choose Waymo One as the means by which they go from point A to point B, leaving at or about time t. For Waymo
One to be the chosen by an individual means it had to be -perceived by the traveler as being THE best way to go for this trip at this time. Not the 5th best, or the 3rd best or even the 2nd best. It had to be THE best for
that individual for that {A,B, t}.
Users of Waymo One come from an addressable market made up of trips that would be taken by conventional means, had Waymo One not existed, plus the inducement of new trips because Waymo One is so much better than
all other options so as to make the destination + the travel so desirable that the individual decides to make the trip rather than not go.
To become #1 in the eyes of a potential customer, Waymo One has many positives:
1. It is safe: OK, but not substantially safer than other ways Arizonians have among their choice set as to how to travel.
Likely not enough to elevate Waymo One above their current way to go. So safety by itself is not a differentiator. In economic jargon, the demand elasticity of safety is essentially zero at current safety levels.
2. The technology: OK; however, this is a “one and done” greatness that generates a “selfie” on the first use and little
perceived benefit thereafter. The cost of customer acquisition is so non-trivial that it needs to be focused on repeat customers and not “one & done”s; where the service is rarely perceived to be better than one’s own car or an expense account ride hailing,
taxi or limousine trip.
3. Service is inexpensive and can be made affordable with vehicle productivity and scale: Great! This is an attribute
that is really important at the current moment to folks who don’t have access to their own car and who are paying their own way.
4. Service is high-quality in that its flexibility can allow it to respond to a customer’s demand rather than having the
customer change their desire in order to correlate to a schedule and a route: Great, especially to those for which affordability is important so there isn’t need to trade off price with service. Moreover, the service can be made even better in the future
such that even car owners may change their car-buying behavior because Waymo’s service has become so good and so affordable that they pivot.
My recommendation would be for Waymo to concentrate their “Proof of Market” on serving customers who currently don’t have access to their own car, can’t readily get a ride from someone, and will appreciate how
inexpensively Waymo One can afford to deliver a safe, high-quality ride. Once focused on serving the mobility desires of this market segment, then Waymo One can pass the “Proof of Market” test by achieving a vehicle productivity of 100 person trips per day
per vehicle. That productivity allows them to scale and be relevant and profitable. Is it any surprise that I am suggesting they work with us in Trenton and on other MOVES-style projects? 😊 Alain
The Road to Autonomy, April 25. “The Road
to Autonomy®, a leading source of data, insight and commentary on autonomous vehicles and logistics, has selected S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) to be the custom calculation agent for The Road to Autonomy Index (ticker: AUTONOMY) and The Road to Autonomy
Total Return Index (ticker: AUTOMYTR). The Road to Autonomy Index, comprised of 38 publicly-traded companies, measures the performance of the autonomous vehicle and logistics ecosystems, including autonomous
vehicles, trucks and off-road specialty vehicles, as well as transportation, technology, industrial and services companies that have identified autonomy as a key component of their growth strategies.
"The Road to Autonomy Index provides a comprehensive view into this dynamic sector that is poised to shape the future of how we live and work," said Grayson Brulte, founder and chief executive officer of The Road to
Autonomy. "Our unmatched knowledge of the industry and the influences that drive it give us unique perspective into its potential, and our partnership with S&P DJI provides a foundation of integrity and transparency for the Index."… “ Read
more Hmmmm… Very interesting. See ZoomCast
316/PodCast
316 below Alain
As
Appears in the NY Times (& CNN)
April 20, 2023, "...
" Read more Hmmmm…..
Check out the guy in the Orange shorts. My 2nd live launch. My 1st was July 16, 1969, Cape Kennedy, Apollo 11. 😎
While
On-Road Driverless Slows, Ag-Tech Autonomy Players Are Plowing Ahead
R. Bishop, March 30, “The John Deere Company wowed the crowds at the 2023 Consumer Electronics
Show in January with their high-tech agricultural equipment. At their exhibit, heads craned upward in awe to take in the 120 ft boom of their precision spraying technology, straddled atop a massive tractor. At the CES 2022, Deere & Company introduced a fully
autonomous tractor.
In the months since CES, we’ve seen multi-faceted challenges for companies seeking to transform road-running Automated Driving Systems (ADS) into a profitable business. ADS developer Embark announced a shutdown and
Locomation appears to be on the same path. The mood of investors is uncertain, especially given troubles in the banking sector.
Against this backdrop, the off-road world is becoming increasingly interesting for companies developing autonomy. Caterpillar and Komatsu brought the first commercial ADS’s to mining operations well over a decade ago.
At that time, although the tech was very expensive, a business case could be made for equipping the huge mine-hauling trucks at open pit mines.
Since that time, thanks to the tidal wave of AV development for passenger cars, trucks, robo-shuttles, delivery robots, and more, the tech cost has now come down to reasonable levels for other types of industrial operations.
Plus, the tech robustness has progressed by leaps and bounds. The result? Use cases are expanding rapidly in areas such as agriculture and construction. For this article, I’ll dig into the Ag space to examine the linkages with on-road autonomy….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Right on, Dick! Such a timely and excellent post.
As I wrote last week in SmartDrivingCar.com/11.13-AutomotiveAI-033123 and
is repeated below… “ The objective of the 6th SmartDrivingCars Summit will be to put the eventual manufacturers of driverless passenger vehicles together with the eventual operators of transportation
services to decide if there is a business to be made from delivering affordable mobility to a large segment our societies who are underserved by the current options: private cars and public transport.
It’s already happening with military and work vehicles”... ! Alain
ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium: Automated
Driving Systems (ADS) for Consumers and Other Vehicles (Trucks, Delivery, Shuttles, Robotaxis, Etc.)
R. Lanctot, March 12, “ Full automation of the driving task appears tantalizingly close. Multiple use cases are emerging simultaneously, revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance.
The evolution of these use cases will determine the future of ADS. This panel will review the emerging ADS applications – consumer vehicles, commercial vehicles, delivery vehicles, shuttles, robotaxis – to better understand the challenges and opportunities
associated with ADS technology and the state of development and market adoption.….” Read more Hmmmm….. After
almost 15 years of substantive testing (the
Google effort started in 2009) and almost 20 years since the
first DARPA Challenge, we are still only ”… revealing potential paths to market adoption and consumer acceptance …”???
Isn’t it about time that this teenager start delivering some tangible return to its “parents” and society. For what is supposed to be such a disruptive technology it has yet to identify the market where it has decisive
cost or quality advantage over the existing firms. (over the existing solutions it is trying to replace.)
It might be as safe as good drivers (It might be safer than bad drivers), but it has no
chance anytime soon to being disruptively safer. It is not disruptively more fun to drive. Just ride around with it, that’s a service, not a possession. It has no chance at being a consumer vehicle.
… ADS has equally no chance at replacing commercial vehicle drivers. Helping professional drivers have an enhanced workplace? Yes! Removing them from
their workplace? No!
Some special purposed deliveries in the middle of the night? Maybe.
Shuttles… at best a very small one-off niche with no opportunity to be disruptive.
Robotaxis designed and operated so as to serve rich ride-hailers and the chauffeured limousine market? Good luck! Service quality is really important and price is essentially irrelevant (these
folks are rich and/or are traveling on an expense account). It is a non-trivial challenge for Robotaxis to deliver service quality approaching that of Uber/Lyft/Limo; so at best, these Robotaxis can only nip at the heels of Uber/Lyft/Limo, which itself
is way less than 1% of the daily vehicle person-trips under 50 miles in length. Even if Robotaxis got’em all, there’s nowhere near enough to justify any continued investment here.
These conundrums are NOT what was discussed in this session.
Unfortunately, what was also not discussed or realized is that there does exist an enormous market for demand-responsive Robotaxi service that is affordable. 50% of the people in the U.S. are not physically able
to drive a car, or are not financially able to own one for themselves. They still need to get to work, to shops, to medical and rehab facilities, to school, to friends, to … and the fact that they cannot readily and affordably affects their well-being and
the health of the entire country. This is a huge market where a demand-responsive and affordable service is disruptive because it delivers mobility to those who need a ride but are not being served by any transport alternatives which they can afford. THAT’S
WHERE DRIVERLESS MAKES THE DIFFERENCE! Affordability is really important to those who are paying for their own travel and are non-rich. Thus, affordable, demand responsive Robotaxi service can readily be the best consumer choice for that 50%.
The addressable market here is ~150M people over the age of 10, wishing to make ~ 500M personTrips a day in the USA that don’t have their own car waiting around for them to drive it to take them where they want
to go at the
drop of a hat. To offer them with on-demand affordable Robotaxis service that is almost as well (and maybe even better) as if they did have that personal car, would be very disruptive to some, even many and eventually “all”. A well-managed (100
personTrips per day per Robotaxi, 20% profit margin) fleet of 5M Robotaxis could serve essentially all. Serving 1% would need 50,000. Serving a targeted opportunity representing the first 0.001% would require 50. This panel made no mention of this use
case. No mention of the business case.
Let’s continue this panel discussion at the 6th Princeton
SmartDrivingCars Summit in May 22->24. A major part of the Summit is devoted to this one topic: Delivering Mobility to the Non-mobile. We’re going to talk about the business case, something that is sorely missing in public discussion so far. Alain
ITU 2023 Future Networked Car Symposium: Session
2: Using Automotive Artificial Intelligence to Improve Vehicle Safety, Services and Transport Management
M. Sena, March 11., “ …During the next 3 h our panel of experts will discuss the topic of automated automotive artificial intelligence which is artificial intelligence applied to vehicle safety services, and transport
management. I guarantee you they will do a much better job than ChatGPT or I'll personally refund your attendance fees.
The generally accepted definition of artificial intelligence or AI is the application of computers and machines to mimic the problem-solving and decision making capabilities of the human mind….”Read
more Hmmmm….. Must
watch video of session 2, Fantastic session, especially the very frank remarks by Prof. Missy Cummings. Also watch the other 3 sessions linked
here Alain
SpaceX Continues Rapid Development of Starship
Infrastructure - Starbase Weekly Update #53
LabPadre, March 12, “This week at Starbase Raptor installation begins on Booster 9, construction continues on Ships 28 and 30, Ship 26 is parked at the ring yard and the nosecone test article is set to Massey's test
site, while at Cape Canaveral SpaceX maintains a blinding pace of launch and recovery operations, ULA's first Vulcan rocket begins testing, and we review a new batch of flyover photos courtesy of Greg Scott….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Watch
video. Excellent weekly update. Alain
Starbase Live: 24/7 Starship & Super Heavy Development
From SpaceX's Boca Chica Facility
MasaSpaceflight, Live, “Starship is SpaceX's fully reusable launch system which is being developed at Starbase in Cameron County, Texas. Starbase LIVE provides 24/7 coverage of the exciting developments and testing progress….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Watch
LiveStream 24/7. Alain
GM
Announces Ultra Cruise, Enabling True Hands-Free Driving Across 95 Percent of Driving Scenarios
Press release, March 6, “Today, General Motors unveiled Ultra Cruise, an all-new, advanced driver-assistance technology and significant next step in the company's journey to enable its goal of zero crashes, zero emissions
and zero congestion. Designed to ultimately enable hands-free driving in 95 percent of all driving scenarios, Ultra Cruise eventually can be used on every paved road in the U.S. and Canada.
Ultra Cruise will cover more than 2 million miles of roads at launch in the United States and Canada, with the capacity to grow up to more than 3.4 million miles. Customers will be able to travel truly hands free with Ultra Cruise across nearly every road including
city streets, subdivision streets and paved rural roads, in addition to highways.….
GM’s two hands-free advanced driver-assist systems will coexist in the company’s lineup with Super Cruise available on more mainstream vehicles and Ultra Cruise reserved for premium entries.
“The combination of Ultra Cruise for premium offerings and Super Cruise for lower-cost products will enable us to offer driver-assist technology across price points and segments,” said Parks....
Always pay attention while driving and when using Ultra Cruise and Super Cruise. Do not use a hand-held device. …. ” Read
more Hmmmm….. Very interesting. High-end and includes LiDAR See ZoomCast
307 / PodCast 307 and Andrew Hawkins' "GM’s
Ultra Cruise will use radar, camera, and lidar to enable hands-free driving", below. Alain
[log in to unmask] Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, March 03, 2023
First
Million Rider-Only Miles: How the Waymo Driver is Improving Road Safety
The Waymo team, Feb 28, “Waymo has achieved many global industry firsts. Each time we delight our riders and deliver on our mission safely, we are proudest. In January, we accomplished another first: we exceeded one
million miles on public roads with no human behind the wheel. …
To provide a more in-depth look into the performance of the Waymo Driver and where it stands compared to human driving, we’ve published a research
paper that summarizes the contact events that we experienced during the first one million miles of our rider-only operations….
T. Victor, et al. “Safety Performance of the Waymo Rider-Only Automated Driving System at One Million Miles”
ABSTRACT: This paper examines the safety performance of the Waymo Driver™, Waymo’s Automated Driving System (ADS). It analyzes one million miles of driving on public roads in parts of California and Arizona with no
human behind the wheel– what we call rider-only (RO) operations. There were no reported injuries, and only two collisions that were comparable to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s Crash Investigation Sampling System (“CISS”), a nationally
representative collision database of collisions that were police reported and in which at least one vehicle was towed. There were an additional 18 minor-contact events that were too minor to meet the tow-away and police-report criteria for CISS, where nine
of these 20 contact events had no damage….
The first event that occurred had the highest severity of the 20 contact events: … In this event, the Waymo vehicle was struck in the rear while slowing for a red light by a
car driven by a teenage driver. Rearward facing video recorded by the ADS suggests the driver of the other vehicle was looking at a cell phone held near the steering wheel immediately prior to the collision…. ” Read more Hmmmm…..
The entire paper is worth a very careful read. Performance during this first million miles is very impressive. While in the scope of things it is not very many miles, the first of anything is never very many and often it is when bad things happen. Look
at what happened to Uber in the beginning.
Enormous kudos to Waymo (and Cruise). They have, in my opinion, demonstrated that they can move people safely in an ODD. Hopefully, they’ll now look for
an ODD where they can safely provide mobility most of the time (NOT necessarily every day, but are confident that they can do it, say, 350 days a year) and certainly NOT everywhere in the ODD (instead find the safest set of streets and intersections that allows
them to deliver interconnected on-demand mobility requiring only a short walk (~less than 5 minutes) between most of the locations within that ODD/community). They then can build an affordable, equitable high=quality mobility system for the residents of that/those
ODD(s)
There are many such communities throughout the country, many of which are communities where auto ownership is low, transit service is, at best, poor and the mobility offered would substantially improve the quality
of life of many.
Waymo’s (or Cruise’s) provision of safe, affordable, on-demand mobility would be an enormous public service as well as providing a basis from which to scale to meet thire due diligence obligation to deliver substantial
return on investment to Alphabet (and GM). Alain
[log in to unmask] Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, February 17, 2023
Carmakers
Are Pushing Autonomous Tech. This Engineer Wants Limits.
C. Metz, Feb. 15, Last fall, Missy Cummings sent a document to her colleagues at the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration that revealed a surprising trend: When people using advanced driver-assistance systems
die or are injured in a car crash, they are more likely to have been speeding than people driving cars on their own.
The two-page analysis of nearly 400 crashes involving systems like Tesla’s Autopilot and General Motors’ Super Cruise is far from conclusive. But it raises fresh questions about the technologies that have been installed
in hundreds of thousands of cars on U.S. roads. Dr. Cummings said the data indicated that drivers were becoming too confident in the systems’ abilities and that automakers and regulators should restrict when and how the technology was used.
People “are over-trusting the technology,” she said. “They are letting the cars speed. And they are getting into accidents that are seriously injuring them or killing them.”…” Read
more Hmmmm…. Yup!! Discussion is in SmartDrivingCars ZoomCast
304 / PodCast
304 W/Missy Cummings
[log in to unmask] Click or tap if you trust this link.">Friday, February 3, 2023
SF
Officials Describe Chaos From Cruise, Waymo Cars as They Try To Slow Their Rollout
K. Truong, Jan 30, “Firefighters were battling a major
house fire near the intersection of Hayes and Divisadero streets early in the morning of Jan. 22 when a Cruise vehicle with no safety driver started to creep its way into the emergency scene.
Two firefighters stood in front of the car to prevent the vehicle from driving over hoses used to douse the growing inferno, but that didn’t work. As the car continued to inch forward, one firefighter took quick action
and smashed the vehicle’s front window, finally bringing the car to a stop. First responders contacted Cruise, who sent workers to move the vehicle out of the way. …
That was just one of 92 unique incidents between May 29 and Dec. 31—mainly from Cruise—cited by San Francisco transit officials, who are strongly urging for tighter oversight as “robotaxi” services look
to massively expand their operations…
Alain Kornhauser, … pinned the companies’ missteps on an effort to grab market share from Lyft and Uber rather than solving for transportation gaps.
“To me, the shame of these companies is that they have a solution, and they are still looking for a problem,” Kornhauser said. “The objective of this is not a selfie in a self-driving car; it’s to provide mobility
to folks who don’t have it and ultimately improve their quality of life.”… Read
more Hmmmm…. Well said 😊 For
a solution (driverless mobility) that could be doing so much good for so many who have so little mobility that even “transit officials” would be sending them high praise ,they instead seem to be singularly focused on providing yet another alternative to those
that already have too many great mobility options. Their hammer is simply focused on the wrong nail and this is especially debilitating when the first nail is the wrong nail. The self-inflicted pain is so much greater when there is little, if anything, gained
by hitting, let alone missing, the wrong nail. Alain
Riding Nairobi's Craziest Matatu, Kenya
J. Billam, Feb. 11 ’22, “I show my wild experience riding Nairobi's Craziest Matatu (local
bus) bound for Rongai in Kenya's capital city… “ Watch more Hmmmm... If
we aren’t going to have Moves-style
Autonomous Transit Networks, then Matatus may
well be the answer to safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable, and colorful mobility. Millions take them every day in Nairobi, Kenya. Amazing. J
Alain
All
Nairobi Matatu Routes at your fingertips!
“ Have you ever found yoursel in town with no idea how to get to a certain destination using Public Transport and you end up calling friends or asking strangers where a certain Matatu stage is? You are not alone!!
Thousands of Nairobians go through this daily!
So us cool peeps at MyRide Africa thought to bring this to an end so that you never get lost in Nairobi again! We have the all new Matatu Map on the App that can help you to find any route in Nairobi in 3 easy steps…’’ Read
more Hmmmm... Just returned from a trip of a life time to Kenya. Absolutely fantastic experience Alain
S. Still, Jan. 10, Project Overview: University at Buffalo is issuing this Request for Proposals (RFP) to solicit proposals from qualified firms to provide self-driving shuttle vehicles and operations in the
Buffalo Niagara Medical Campus and surrounding neighborhoods. The project is funded by the US Department of Transportation as part of its ITS4US program.
Proposal Date/Time:
February 1, 2023 2:30pm EST. Proposals received after the specified time will not be accepted.
The Request for Proposals (RFP) documents are available now by registering through this link: https://www.nyscr.ny.gov/adsOpen.cfm Questions
can be addressed to David Markey, Senior Buyer, at [log in to unmask]. ….” Read
more Hmmmm... I love what Dr. Steve Still is trying to do in Buffalo. All the best. Alain
Automotive
AI Is Making Both Cars and Drivers Better
M. Sena, Dec. 28, “ AUTOMOTIVE ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE (AAI) is a term that has different meanings, depending upon who is using it. For some, it means completely removing the human from the driving task and turning over control of
the vehicle to software and sensors. For others, the goal of AAI is to supplement and improve the human driver's abilities in order to make driving safer, offer new and better services, and increase the effectiveness of transport management. The latter goal,
improving the driving experience, has proven achievable with AI that accomplishes one or a limited set of objectives. The former goal, removing the human from the driving task, has proven to be devilishly difficult because the car needs to drive at least as
well as a human.
AI that can approximate a human, that has the ability to understand and learn any intellectual task that a human can, is called Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It is also called ‘Strong AI’, with its six major branches: machine
learning, neural networks, robotics, expert systems, fuzzy logic and natural language processing. AI that has proven to be excellent at accomplishing one goal at a time, like playing chess, or interpretring spoken commands or answering questions like APPLE’s
SIRI, is called ‘Weak AI’. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. If Elon can call FSD "FSD", then Michael can call AI "AI".
(Please at least read The Turing Test). Both are names that
enormously over-state their realities. FSD is not anywhere near Full anything and AI is nowhere near Intelligent. Both do a few cute things in very narrow circumstances and neither can find their way out of a paper bag. Alain
Autonomous
Vehicles Reality Check Part 2: Moving People
R. Bishop, Dec. 22, “ Recent reporting/blogging about AV’s can be maddeningly confusing, because the days of saying anything meaningful about “AV’s” as a singular entity are long past. What’s going on depends on what kind of AV you’re
talking about. Writers and pundits can pontificate about “the trouble in AV City” if they want, but they must first explain what AV sector they’re referring to. To make sweeping statements is meaningless; the dynamics of the technical, operational, and business
factors are too diverse. Thus this three-part article series, my shot at describing the great breadth of today’s AV’s and providing color commentary.
A fundamental AV distinction regards what’s inside the vehicle: people or freight? This Part Two article focuses on moving people. Part Three will focus on moving goods.
Two Distinct Domains: Private or Commercial? ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. Excellent, must read that among other things makes clear the distinction between what are largely orthogonal
markets: Private (selling a vehicle) and Commercial (selling a ride) .
What is missing, especially in the "selling a ride" coordinate is appreciation for the diversity of the "people" being moved. The spectrums spanning poor -> rich; young ->old; able-> dis-able; conservative ->
liberal; .... that reflect not only on when & where each of those individuals choose to go but also on their choice as which commercial AV deployment, they'll choose to make the trip that today isn't made or switch from the way they are going today.
As we know from the movement of goods, one size doesn't fit all; one deployment doesn't fit all. Pick-ups do well for haulin' some of your own stuff, Class 8's for big valuable stuff. Then there are flatbeds,
tankers, cements, choo choos, boats, ... and so on for very specific stuff. It ends up really mattering what good it is when it comes to figuring out what and how to deploy something to best move it.
My point is the discussion about deployment along the private and especially the commercial domains has failed to recognize the diversity of the customer set and is failing to deploy near-term capabilities to
be better serve the mobility needs of individuals that would be best served by that deployment.
Moving people is a "big-dimensional" market characterized by foudomains: {P, A, B, t} where P = people; A = from location; B = to location; t = time.
Deployment must address not only the diversity of A, B and t but also that of P. In order for an AV deployment to capture a customer it needs to be the best for that customer when that customer wishes to go from
A to B at time t. That's the deployment challenge . The diversity of P is certainly as important as that of A, B and t. To date the deployment focus has been one-size to fit all that has fit very few in the deployed Operational Design Domain. Alain
Once
You See the Truth About Cars, You Can’t Unsee It
Guest Opinion: A. Ross & J. Livingston,Dec. 15, “ In American consumer lore, the automobile has always been a “freedom machine” and liberty lies on the open road. “Americans are a race of independent people” whose “ancestors came
to this country for the sake of freedom and adventure,” the National Automobile Chamber of Commerce’s soon-to-be-president, Roy Chapin, declared in 1924. “The automobile satisfies these instincts.” During the Cold War, vehicles with baroque tail fins and oodles
of surplus chrome rolled off the assembly line, with Native American names like Pontiac, Apache, Dakota, Cherokee, Thunderbird and Winnebago — the ultimate expressions of capitalist triumph and Manifest Destiny.
But for many low-income and minority Americans, automobiles have been turbo-boosted engines of inequality, immobilizing their owners with debt, increasing their exposure to hostile law enforcement, and in general accelerating the
forces that drive apart haves and have-nots. ….” Read
more Hmmmm….. The fundamentals of our MOVES approach to the deployment is focused directly on providing a high-quality affordable
alternative to this community. Moreover, the
comment that the NYT posted with the article. Alain
I'm going to the moon!!!... Literally!
T. Dodd, Dec. 8, “t's true! I have been chosen as one of the members of the incredible dearMoon mission around the moon on SpaceX's Starship rocket. To learn more about the mission and to meet the rest of the crew,
visit - http://dearmoon.earth & https://dearmoon.earth/share_crew/tim... And
hear more about the announcement from Yusaku Maezawa!!! - https://youtu.be/DKNSlL3Inn8...
“ Watch more Hmmmm... So
deserving! Tim has done so much to make rigorous “rocket science” understandable by non-rocket scientists while maintaining the rigor. For that substance he has been most justifiable awarded this special honor. Life is good! Tim, you most justifiably earned
this incredible privilege. Full disclosure… I’m a long time subscriber to [log in to unmask] Click or tap if you trust this link.">Everyday Astronaut. Alain
What
Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy
C. Metz, Nov. 14, “Cade and Ian spent six hours riding in a self-driving car in Jacksonville, Fla., to report this story.
When we decided it was time for lunch, Chuck Cook tapped the digital display on the dashboard of his Tesla Model Y and told the car to drive us to the Bearded Pig, a barbecue joint on the other side of town.
“I don’t know how it’s gonna do. But I think it’s gonna do pretty good,” he said with the folksy, infectious enthusiasm he brought to nearly every moment of our daylong tour of Jacksonville, Fla., in a car that could
drive itself. …
As the car approached the shadows beneath this mossy canopy, it suddenly changed course, turned sharply right and headed the wrong way down a one-way street: he moment highlighted the difference between Tesla’s self-driving
technology and “robotaxi” services being developed by companies like Waymo, owned by the same parent company as Google, and Cruise, backed by General Motors. The robotaxi companies are trying to reduce these unexpected moments by tightly controlling where
and how a car can drive. But these services will have strict limitations that make the task easier. The cars will travel only in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions at relatively low speeds. And company technicians will provide remote assistance
to cars that inevitably find themselves in situations they cannot navigate on their own…. "Read
more Hmmmm... This is exactly the basis for our MOVES-style approach to deployment. In the near term, this technology has
a reasonable chance of being good enough if its calibrations (the released version) has been biased to work well in …” in certain neighborhoods under certain weather conditions
at relatively low speeds” ,. It must also demonstrated that it does work well (zero disengagements) in a sufficient subset of the streets in those neighborhoods such that the driver/attendant is not needed
to ensure safe operation. Substantially better mobility can then be delivered between many locations throughout those neighborhoods in most weather conditions than the mobility available today throughout those neighborhoods.
Unless Driverless is substantially better in delivering mobility to some in some places they will never be more that a fad or fashion statement. Unfortunately, that’s how Driverless has been positioned to date.
“My car drives itself! A ride becomes a goofy selfie on TikTok/Instagram/Twitter… Look Mom, no hands!!! Good luck in any repeat customers or near-term RoI.
As we’ve been saying over and over, the substantial value proposition of driverless (or real FSD) is NOT safety (it can be “as safe” but, again, way too difficult for it to be substantially safer) and, in the
near term, not a fashion statement or toy for the rich (way too expensive to create that). It certainly can’t be substantially better than one’s own personal car, although it can come close to being as good and maybe even arguably better to some.
The attributes that can make Driverless substantially better than all other forms of mobility is its capability to affordability deliver high-quality (auto-like demand-responsive non-circuitous, 24/7 availability
in most weather conditions) mobility affordably while being safe, equitable and environmentally responsive (by facilitating casual ride-sharing when warranted as is done naturally when using elevators). Such a mobility service is offered by Kiosk2Kiosk elevator-like
operation throughout the safest subset of interconnecting streets. We call these MOVES-style
Driverless Transit Networks.
Affordability is THE key differentiator. If you are rich enough to afford a car for yourself and have a driver’s license, then this system isn’t
substantially better than what you have now. Neither is it if you can afford to pay and tip an Uber/Lyft gig worker or if your expense account pays for your taxi/limo or black car driver or if you have a chauffeur. Nor if you live in Manhattan or in the very
center of a few of our largest cities. For everyone else (the too young, the too old, the too poor, the sufficiently poor that can’t afford a car for each driver in the family, then MOVES-style
Driverless Transit Networks can readily be transformative. Trenton NJ turns out to be one of these communities where 70% of households have access to one or fewer cars. Perth Amboy, NJ,. Cherry Hill, MD, Patterson, NJ, Scranton, PA are similar. My Mobility
Disadvantage Index for places in New Jersey can be found here and
for the rest of the US, here.
I am confident that Waymo, Cruise and Tesla could today, make their systems work safely in Trenton and many of the other Mobility Disadvantaged communities if they simply added to their training set the data from
driving between the kiosks in, say Trenton, and generated a ***.Trenton release of their ***Driver to be used exclusively in Trenton to deliver substantially improved mobility to many. Alain
A
Deployment Framework for MOVES-style Driverless Transit Networks
A. Kornhauser, Nov. 1, "So much has been happening lately on the AV scene. With all these recent changes in mind, it seems a good moment for me to reiterate the basic fundamentals of mobility and then to restate the context with which
I see the potential value of AV technology. In the following presentation, I will identify some pertinent societal challenges where mobility might have an opportunity to substantially improve quality-of-life. Fundamental to this concept is the deployment of
technology that disrupts consumer choice, thus allowing the marketplace to deliver both the economic return on the investment in the technology and to unleash the societal benefits of the improved quality-of-life." Read
more Hmmmm... View
slides, listen to
PodCast and/or watch a repeat of the presentation that I made at the 2022
UBC International Road Safety Symposium. Alain
Ford,
VW-backed Argo AI is shutting down
K. Korosec, Oct 26, "Argo AI, an autonomous vehicle startup that burst on the scene in 2017 stacked with a $1 billion investment, is shutting down — its parts being absorbed into its two main backers: Ford and VW,
according to people familiar with the matter.
During an all-hands meeting Wednesday, Argo AI employees were told that some people would receive offers from the two automakers, according to multiple sources who asked to not be named. It was unclear how many would be hired into Ford or VW and which companies
will get Argo’s technology.
Employees were told they would receive a severance package that includes insurance and two separate bonuses — an annual award plus a transaction bonus upon the deal close with Ford and VW. All Argo employees will receive these. For those who are not retained
by Ford or VW, they will additionally receive termination and severance pay, including health insurance. Several people told TechCrunch that it was a generous package and that the founders of the company spoke directly to its more than 2,000 employees..." ... Certainly
a "class act" way to shut down.
"...said Farley. “It’s mission-critical for Ford to develop great and differentiated L2+ and L3 applications that at the same time make transportation even
safer.” Farley also insinuated that Ford would be able to buy AV tech down the line, instead of developing it in house. “We’re optimistic about a future for L4 ADAS, but profitable, fully autonomous vehicles at scale are a long way off and we won’t necessarily
have to create that technology ourselves,” ... Read
more Hmmmm... What??? What is "L4 ADAS"??? You are really going to do L3 which many believe is harder than L4. L3 is going to require that Ford accept the safety liability and the "obey all the legal operation" liability for the life of the
vehicle whenever the driver is able to engage that functionality. There is NO WAY Ford or really any OEM is ever going to take on that substantive amount of liability unless there is such an abundance of fine print that it makes Elon's proclamations about
FSD seem like junior varsity.
We all understand that "L2+" is today's "50s-style chrome & fins" propelling the selling cars in showrooms as OEMs have always done. Absolutely no need to get to driverless (L4 in some societly or commercially
viable ODD).
Idf someone does develop (as I quoted last week) Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity,
the new technology…- competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”, it is going to simply make it available to allow Ford to continue to serve its customers or will use it to crush Ford? Alain
L. Sumagaysay, Oct. 27, "...", Read
more Hmmmm... Another view. Alain
Ford
thinks driver assist is a safer bet than driverless cars, but it’s fooling itself
1. Hawkins, Oct. 27, "When Ford announced yesterday that it was pulling its support for Argo
AI, the autonomous driving startup it had financed since 2017, it cited as one of its reasons a belief that driver-assist technology will have more near-term payoffs....." Read
more Hmmmm... I agree with Andrew, as I stated above. Alain
Waymo
says it’s bringing robotaxis to L.A.
Russ Mitchell, Oct 19, 2022 “The company, owned by Google parent Alphabet, said Wednesday that it plans to make L.A. its next market. “L.A. is in the top three ride-hailing markets in the United States and globally,”
said Saswat Panigrahi, the company’s chief product officer. “The commercial opportunity is huge.”
But Waymo offered scant information about its plans, including when the commercial service will begin and how extensive the service’s coverage will be….” Read
more Hmmmm... or what the service will be? Ride-hailing??? Compete with Uber/Lyft… good luck! After leading the "testing phase" for the last 13 years, this is their plan for the "deployment phase". So disappointing! Doesn’t come close
to meeting Schumpeter’s Disruptive Technology Threshold …: "... [I]n capitalist reality…, it is not [price] competition which counts but the competition from the new commodity, the new technology…-
competition which commands a decisive cost or quality advantage and which strikes not at the margins of the profits and the outputs of the existing firms but at their foundations and their very lives.” Joseph
A Shumpeter (1883-1950)”. Alain
The Long
Run to Autonomous Vehicles
K. Pyle, Oct. 13, "Autonomous vehicles (AV) provide the opportunity to correct government transportation failures is how the Brookings
Institution’s Clifford Winston characterized the potential opportunity provided by autonomous vehicles. Winston spoke to the possible economic impact of autonomous vehicles in an online media briefing (YouTube
video) that also included speakers from Princeton and the Reason Foundation who touched on the technology and the role of public policy and regulation. A lively question and answer period followed the briefing...." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you. Excellent. Alain
Tesla Staff, Sept. 30, "Streamed live..." Read
more Hmmmm... I'm not much of a fan of humanoids so you may skip the first hour; however, starting @ 0:58:00 - FSD Intro, the next
hour and a half is substantive and a must watch. My takeaway remains driverless "everywhere" is so enormously challenging that the near-term opportunity (next 10 years) to sell such a vehicle to a consumer is simply unthinkable. The terms & conditions would
need to be so onerous making the total addressable market essentially null.
That said, I suspect that there exist some, possibly many, societally beneficial Operational Design Domains (ODD), where "FSD 69.2.2" or near term releases can deliver safe driverless mobility. This deployment strategy
is what I with the technical support of CARTS, Inc. have decided to focus on. Alain
Can
Tesla Data Help Us Understand Car Crashes?
C. Metz, Aug. 18, "Shortly before 2 p.m. on a clear July day in 2020, as Tracy Forth was driving near Tampa, Fla., her white Tesla Model S was hit from behind by another car in the left lane of Interstate 275.
It was the kind of accident that occurs thousands of times a day on American highways. When the vehicles collided, Ms. Forth’s car slid into the median as the other one, a blue Acura sport utility vehicle, spun across the highway and onto the far shoulder.
After the collision, Ms. Forth told police officers that Autopilot — a Tesla driver-assistance system that can steer, brake and accelerate cars — had suddenly activated her brakes for no apparent reason. She was unable to regain control, according to the police
report, before the Acura crashed into the back of her car.
But her description is not the only record of the accident. Tesla logged nearly every particular, down to the angle of the steering wheel in the milliseconds before impact. Captured by cameras and other sensors installed on the car, this data provides a startlingly
detailed account of what occurred, including video from the front and the rear of Ms. Forth’s car.
It shows that 10 seconds before the accident, Autopilot was in control as the Tesla traveled down the highway at 77 miles per hour. Then she prompted Autopilot to change lanes..." Read
more Hmmmm... We've been calling for an independent
analysis of the Tesla data for some time. Privacy is easy to protect. There is no need to know who owns or was operating each Tesla. Also see ZoomCast
280 Alain
Tesla's 2022 Shareholder Meeting with Elon Musk
E. Musk, Aug. 4, .” Read
more Hmmmm... Watch the Q & A portion starting about an hour in from the start. Watch especially the comments about his vision of the Tesla RoboTaxi (aka driverless cars, what I prefer to call autonomousTaxis or aTaxis, the new "Modern Transit").
The key visions are:
@ t=6375 ... the
issue of how he sees these driverless vehicles being operated (deployed).
While I don't agree with the option of owning your own and renting it out "AirB&B -style where B&B = Mobility". It is easier and more likely to begin by having a Professional entity managing a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis
that provide mobility to the everyone in the community. This will be the the "Modern Public Transit". An example being Trenton MOVES using a fleet of Tesla RoboTaxis.
For these RoboTaxis to be attractive to a fleet operator, they will need to be styled differently than consumer versions that are sold to individuals. The RoboTaxi will need to be easy to get in and out and interface
well with wheelchairs. They'll need to accommodate ride-sharing (personTrips are the source of the revenue, not vehicle sales). They should have 4-wheel steering so they will never need to back up in stub-end operation. He has re imagined the pickup truck.
Certainly, he can re-imagine a car focused on providing safe, equitable, affordable, sustainable high-quality mobility throughout a community.
At the end of addressing the future of Robotasis he states ..." assuming we do all these things, I think, probably, Tesla will be the most valuable company in the
world."
@ t=7057 Elon is asked "when will Tesla
launch the first pilot city for the RoboTaxi business?
Elon dodged the question by stating that he is focused on doing driverless everywhere, even in every imaginable simulation of the real world. Consequently, once achieved, it could be released everywhere al at once.
While a great vision, this is simply not realistic. He started selling Teslas in California, not throughout the whole country. He fully understands that one must crawl before one walks, before one runs.
As you might suspect, I have the ideal "California" for him to first deploy his RoboTaxis and its not California or Arizona. It is New Jersey: Trenton, NJ or Perth Amboy, NJ or Patterson, NJ or many other cities
in New Jersey where the mobility offered by Tesla RoboTaxis would be life changing to many while becoming an interesting alternative to everyone else. DoJo can more readily regress the coefficients to deliver safe driverless operation within any one of these
Operational Design Domains (ODD) rather than trying to do them all simultaneously. Coefficients can/should be tied to ODDs rather than having one "magical" set that works in all ODDs. It is trivial for the Operating system to load the coefficients that work
best in theRoboTaxi's current ODD. This should allow RoboTaxis to demonstrate their technical, economic and societal virtues much sooner in these communities. Market success will fuel expansion and replication in the delivery of safe, equitable, affordable,
sustainable, high-quality mobility so that is spreads beyond New Jersey to California and beyond just like the purchase of the first Teslas spread from California to New Jersey and beyond.
@ t=7417 Elon is asked about the Boring
Company.
True, if one could bore tunnels inexpensively, it would be great for longer distance travel. Certainly, all of the freeways in and around cities would be placed underground. High Speed rail on the NorthEast
Corridor can only go underground for long stretches. Bringing the Dinky to a Nassau Street terminus must be done underground. By the way Washington Road should be underground eradicating the cancer that it is as a surface street severing the Princeton Campus.
Then there is Rt. 29 that devastated Trenton by barricading the western part of Trenton from the Delaware River and Rt. 129 that severed neighborhoods; a scenario that was repeated in essentially every city to accommodate through-moving surface travel. They
should all go underground. There is much good that could be done. The challenge is the above if.
@ t=6665 "when
disengaging autoPilot with the wheel, the accelerator stays on. Please fix it!"
Maybe... touching or not touching the steering wheel has little in common with acceleration (and braking) which is (are) controlled by the feet. The steering control should be readily overcome by input of a torque
on the steering wheel; however, the steering control should revert to dominance if the driver ceases to exhort a torque on the wheel. Moreover, torquing the steering wheel should not disengage the brake or the throttle.
With respect to the driver actions on the brake and throttle:
Driver input from the throttle should have precedence over "intelligent cruise control (ICC)" input to the throttle and brake and should NOT turn off the system simply because the driver touched the accelerator pedal.
For the brake, it is a little different. Tapping the brake should turn off the acceleration function of the ICC. Acceleration should remain off until the driver explicitly re-engages it. Moreover, driver input
to the brake, if less than what the ICC calls for, should always be dominated by the ICC's desire to brake. Tapping of the brakes should not turn off the braking function of the ICC. That intelligent brakig function should continue to keep m fro getting
to close to the vehicle in front of me. The acceleration function has been turned off so I won't accelerate into the back of the car ahead of me and the braking function should continue to do its best to keep a proper separation between me and the vehicle
ahead. Turning the whole system off placing me completely in control should require an explicit action by me that indicates I'm knowingly usurping responsibility.
I believe ICC should be on all the time. Driver sets the speed and separation (or it is done automatically relative to the speed limit, weather conditions and road curvatures). Driver can choose to override the
throttle and override the braking at any time; however, in the absence of overrides, the ICC is in charge. Alain
3 minute Promo: https://youtu.be/q5Ov_dPuRV4
The 5th Summit: https://www.cartsmobility.com/summit
Dr. Steve Still's Tribute to Heywood Patterson
S. Still, June 3, "... Heywood Patterson, 67, He often drove members of his church to Tops, helping them load their groceries into his car and then taking them home. "That's what eh did all the time," Deborah Patterson
said. "That's what the loved to do". ..." Watch Video Hmmmm...
A principal reason for "Trenton MOVES"-like deployments is to do what Heywood Patterson "loved to do" for the many. Alain
The
Evolving Business of Powering Our Vehicles
M. Sena, May 24, "New Car Assessment Programs (NCAPs) all around the world have created a separate and unequal set of standards for vehicle safety operating in parallel with the Type Approval processes in most countries
and the U.S. Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards and their equivalents in other countries. One standard is enough. In this month’s the lead article, I look at why this has happened, why it is not a good idea, and what should be done to correct the situation.
There is no Musings in this month’s issue. Instead, I have put my musings energies to work in Dispatch Central. You can see the topics below. The section ends with a notable quote from the CEO of Stellantis on the topic of battery electric vehicles.
Enjoy your June issue of The Dispatcher. All comments are welcome, whether you want to take exception to something I have written or you just want to let me know that you got something out of reading it. ..." Read
more Hmmmm... Every month, great reading. Enjoy! Alain
NJDOT
Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti and the Trenton NJ MOVES Program
P. Keller, April 29, "New Jersey recently announced a $5 million grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System or MOVES Project. The grant to the City of Trenton will support the planned start
up and eventual deployment of 100 Autonomous Vehicles that will provide an on-demand automated transit system to serve the 90,000 residents of Trenton....." Read
more Hmmmm... Very nice. Alain
April 21, "CARTS Executive Director Jerry He explains to the audience at #CoMotionMiami that:
Hmmmm... Yup! See
ZoomCast265 Alain
Musk
promises 'dedicated robotaxi' with futuristic look from Tesla
H. Jin, April 6, "Electric carmaker Tesla (TSLA.O) will make a "dedicated" self-driving taxi that will "look futuristic," Chief Executive Elon Musk said on Thursday, without giving
a timeframe.
The 50-year-old billionaire, wearing a black cowboy hat and sunglasses, made the comments at the opening of Tesla's $1.1 billion factory in Texas, which is home to its new headquarters.
"Massive scale. Full self-driving. There's going to be a dedicated robotaxi," Musk told a large crowd at the factory...." Read
more
Hmmmm... Wow! It was brilliant for Elon to begin focusing his EVs on rich Californians who already have a stable full of cars to go all the way
to grandma's house and back and were really looking for a neat toy.
Elon followed the graceful rollout of his Supercharger infrastructure which enabled the upper-middle class that doesn't have a backup fleet and needs to have a toy and reliably go back and forth to grandma's house.
Viola!!! No longer just a toy. Seamless evolution to "Massive
Scale" scale and Massive Profitability.
RoboTaxis' evolution to "Massive
Scale" is turning out to be different. Starting with rich WesternStaters doesn't seem to be working sociologically for Waymo. The rides offered seem to be taken for entertainment and side-show purposes rather than valued enablers of enhanced quality
of life. Nice for selfies, but not much more.
Recall fundamental value is to provide a safe, high-quality ride from A to B. "Safe" is "safe", but "high-quality" is relative to what one now has readily available. For the rich, that's where they've already
put a lot of money to create for themselves something really nice. The chances someone is going to offer something better to an individual that has crafted something perfect for themselves is slim-to-none. Consequently, the service is used primarily for
taking selfies.
For those that don't have their own car for whatever reason (can't drive, don't want to, too young, too old, and/or too poor) their mobility options are simply dreadful. Absolutely trivial for an aTaxi service
to be viewed as the quality winner and used to provide customer accessibility, improved quality of life, endearment, respect, love, appreciation, loyalty, and use.
Consequently, if Elon is really serious about achieving "Massive
Scale" then he should basically flip his Tesla strategy and start by focusing on serving the mobility needs of those that will fully appreciate and gain the most personal value from his market offering;
1. those that don't already have a stable full of their own personal mobility options.
2. those for which his aTaxi can substantially change their lives for the better.
These are the customers of Trenton
MOVES; only about 50,000 of Trenton's 90,000 population; but 50,000 that will really appreciate you. Start by only serving Trenton's 8 square mile area with about 100 vehicles and only during the best 350 days out of the year's 365.25.
They'll be so appreciative and you will have provided the spark that will allow your aTaxis to go viral! You'll quickly serve Mercer county, Newark, Camden, Atlantic City, New Brunswick, Toms River, Perth
Amboy, all of New Jersey, Eastern Pennsylvania, New York City (except Manhattan), Long Island, .....
That's the natural road to "Massive
Scale" for Mobility for all. Start with those in most need and evolve to convert those that will leave their own cars parked in their driveway.
"Massive
Scale" starts with Trenton MOVES. Alain
Taking
our next step in the City by the Bay
The Waymo Team, March 30, "This morning in San Francisco, a fully autonomous all-electric Jaguar I-PACE, with no human driver behind the wheel, picked up a Waymo engineer to get their morning coffee and go to work.
Since sharing that we were ready to take the next step and begin testing fully autonomous operations in the city, we’ve begun fully autonomous rides with our San Francisco employees. They now join the thousands of Waymo One riders we’ve been serving in Arizona,
making fully autonomous driving technology part of their daily lives...." Read
more Hmmmm... Congratulations! Enormous accomplishment and fundamental expression of confidence in your technology. Please come to New Jersey where we are certain that you can actually deliver "Safe, Equitable,
Affordable, Sustainable, High-quality Mobility" that will substantially improve the quality-of-life of many by transforming affordable housing into affordable living and more.
Let's look at the back-of-the-envelope numbers...
Trenton:
Population: 90,000.
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): 300,000
IntraTrenton: 150,000
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
intraTrenton (100%tile) 5 miles
Operational Productivity:
VehicleTrips/Day: 50
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 100
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 35,000
100 vehicle fleet productivity: 10,000 PersonTrips/day (1/15th market penetration)
50% market penetration Fleet requirements: 500 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = $200,000/(4*35,000) = $10/7 = $1.43/PersonTrip
Electricity + maintenance + management + ... = $0.57/PersonTrip
Cost = $2.00/PersonTrip
New Jersey:
Population: 9+ Million
PersonTrips/Day (non-walking): >30 Million
IntraNJ + NJT/Septa to/from NYC & PHL: 30 Million
PersonTripLength (90%tile): 10 miles
Operational Productivity
VehicleTrips/Day: 60
Average Vehicle Occupancy (AVO): 2.5
PersontTrips/VehicleDay: 150
PersonTrips/VehicleYear: 50,000
10% market penetration (3 Million PersonTrips/Day: Fleet requirements: 20,000 vehicles (AVO =2.5) for 60 PersonTrips/VehicleDay).
Cost:
Depreciation/PersonTrip @ $200k/vehicle, 4 year life = 200,000/(4*35,000)= $10/7 = $1.43
Electricity + maintenance + management ... = $0.57
Cost per PersonTrip = $2.00
Revenue: (10% market penetration: 3M personTrips/Day)
10% @ cost + 90% market pricing:
10% @ $2.00/PersonTrip (300,000*$2.00 = $600,000/day; $200M/year
90% @ $3.70/personTrip (2.7M*3.70 = $10M/day; 3.5B/year (value poposition could hae the average market price even higher than $3.70/personTrip (+$1.70 over cost)
Profit: $1.70 *2.7M = $4.6M/day = $1.5B/year
Seems to me that Waymo should have responded to the NJ DoT RfEI and shouldn't be completely ignoring me. I guess I'm missing something. Maybe someone else will call me? �� Alain
Moving Forward
with Trenton MOVES
K. Pyle, Feb. 9, "Dr. Alain Kornhauser’s vision of bringing equitable, sustainable, and affordable mobility to the people of Trenton took another step forward with the February 9th, 2022 announcement (Facebook) of
a $5 million NJDOT Local Transportation Planning Fund Grant for the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicles Equity System (MOVES) Project (PDF). The significance of this event goes beyond the grant announcement..." Read
more Hmmmm... Ken, thank you for the kind words. Alain
Smart Driving Cars Extra: Trenton MOVES gets moving
Feb. 11, "The New Jersey DOT is providing 5 million dollars to get Trenton MOVES moving. The goal..autonomous, affordable, safe mobility for all. This is a video of the event held on February 9th." Read
more Hmmmm... Fantastic even with challenging audio. Turn on Closed Caption. The substance is in the quality of the words from the Mayor, Commissioner and Superintendent. All from the heart. Very worth absorbing. Alain.
W. Skaggs, Feb. 3,"We are excited to invite you to join Mayor Gusciora, N.J. Department of Transportation (NJDOT) Commissioner Diane Gutierrez-Scaccetti, and Trenton Public Schools Superintendent James Earle to celebrate a $5
million award from the NJDOT Local Transportation Projects Fund for an unprecedented public transportation project right here in the Capital City. The project is called the Trenton Mobility & Opportunity: Vehicular Equity System (MOVES) initiative.
Originally announced
by Governor Murphy and Commissioner Gutierrez-Scaccetti in December, TrentonMOVES seeks to provide a safe, equitable, and affordable high-quality on-demand mobility service to Trenton residents. The effort is a collaboration
between the Governor’s Office, NJDOT, the City of Trenton, and Princeton University.
The $5 million award is a huge milestone for the project. This will be the first large-scale urban transit system in America to be based entirely on self-driving shuttles. Each vehicle will carry four to eight passengers at a time.
The AVs will be low-cost to users in underserved neighborhoods. The high school will be one of the central destinations on the first routes.
The event will take place at 11:00 a.m. on Wednesday, Feb. 9, 2022 in the Trenton Central High School auditorium. Members of the press will be invited to attend. ...." Read
more Hmmmm... Another real milestone.
The Trenton MOVES RfEI closed February 25, with 20 submittals. Next comes the 5thPrinceton
SmartDrivingCar Summit June 2 -> 4, 2022 in Princeton & Trenton, NJ. The Summit will be focused on enabling Trentonians to get a first glimpse at technology and mobility
systems that can deliver Trenton MOVES' mobility objectives (Safety, Equity, Affordability, Sustainability,..) and, very importantly, enabling technology and mobility companies to learn the market opportunities available to be captured in Trenton, the rest
of Mercer County, and throughout New Jersey.
Trenton MOVES is a win-win opportunity for the citizens of New Jersey (The Public) and the shareholders of mobility provider(s) (The Private), who can come together in a Trenton MOVES Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) that will
be created through a Request for Proposal (RfP) process commencing shortly after the close of the Summit. Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, *69, *71, P03, P27
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
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