41nd edition of the 9th year of SmartDrivingCars eLetter
Tesla pulled its latest ‘Full Self Driving’ beta after testers complained about false crash warnings and other bugs
R. Lawler, Oct 24, “Tesla’s decision to test its “Full Self Driving” advanced driver assistance software with untrained vehicle owners on public roads has attracted scrutiny and criticism, and that was before this latest release.
Version 10.3 began rolling out on Saturday night / Sunday morning with a long list of release notes. The list mentions changes starting with introducing driver profiles that can swap between different characteristics for following distance, rolling stops, or exiting passing lanes. It’s supposed to better detect brake lights, turn signals, and hazard lights from other vehicles, along with reduced false slowdowns and improved offsetting for pedestrians.
However, on Sunday afternoon Elon Musk tweeted that Tesla is “Seeing some issues with 10.3, so rolling back to 10.2 temporarily.” Read more Hmmmm… The problems stem from version 10.3 loading with Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) enabled. Most everything is OK if AEB is disabled. Which, of course, is the fundamental problem with AutoPilot and FSD…
Tesla got ahead of itself figuring that autoPilot and then FSD were so much better> That made their “buggy” and thus annoying AEB superfluous. Rather than fix a lowly “Level 1” system, they simply may have turned it off.
They may finally realize that the AEB functionality is really needed and it needs to be almost perfect. Exceedingly few false positives or false negatives. Wow… Not so simple. They have a lot of hard work to do to fix what they had previously shoved under the rug. Alain
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 239, Zoom-Cast Episode 239 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Oct 28, “Will there be an uprising if a crush of electric vehicles results in overwhelmed power grids? The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin to dive into the issues. Plus the latest on Tesla, the Hertz and Uber deals and more.”
The SmartDrivingCars eLetter, Pod-Casts, Zoom-Casts and Zoom-inars are made possible in part by support from the Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information: www.motoetf.com. Most funding is supplied by Princeton University’s Department of Operations Research & Financial Engineering and Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering (PAVE) research laboratory as part of its research dissemination initiative
November 2021 Issue: The Coming Battle Over Car Electrification
M. Sena, Oct, 27, “There is no Musings section in this month’s issue of The Dispatcher, and the lead article is long. Fred Dryer, who graciously agreed to review the lead article, The Coming Battle Over Car Electrification, and provided many valuable suggestions for modifications, said he thought it was too long and worried that people would not read it. I said that the 10-15% of those to whom I send the newsletter each month who actually do read each issue would read the article, and the rest might remember that they had received something on the topic if they need it for some other purpose. If you are in the 85-90% group, maybe you could just read The Issue’s Theme: Responsible Transitions on the cover page, as a favor to your editor. I have copied it into the bottom of this mail. I believe you will find it useful for analyzing what is occurring at the COP26 climate meeting starting in Glasgow in a few days.” Read more Hmmmm… Another excellent edition and check out the SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 239, Zoom-Cast Episode 239 w/Michael Sena, Editor of The Dispatcher, Alain
B. Templeton, Oct. 25, “Most of the biggest names in self-driving cars are aiming to make money selling Robotaxi service — most quickly described as a self-driving Uber UBER -2.2%-style service where you can summon a car with an app on your phone and ride elsewhere for a reasonable fee, possibly combined with “sharing” in some form, such as the style of UberPool or forms of on-demand transit.
This is the plan of Waymo, Cruise, Amazon AMZN -3%/Zoox, Argo AI and many others. It was obviously the plan of Uber ATG before it sold to Aurora, and Lyft LYFT -2.3% L5 before it sold to Toyota. It’s even a big part of the plan of Tesla TSLA +2.3%. While Tesla intends to sell consumer cars, it promotes that they will become part of the “Tesla Network” where customer cars temporarily hire out to give rides, and also that Tesla will buy 3-year old cars as they come off lease to put into a robotaxi fleet.
Indeed, last week, Dan Ammann, CEO of GM’s Cruise predicted that they would see $50 billion in sales…” Read more Hmmmm… Nice article, Brad. I agree. I really like his pointing out that Chandler may be great for test, but the market is most challenging (70% HH have 2 or more cars, and the mind set is completely focused on the conventional car… no one moves there that doesn’t love the car culture.)
I also like his assessment of Uber/Lyft… How in the heck aren’t they profitable with revenues of $0.50/mile and perform only internet/SV type things. They should be profitable. Scalable is a complete other question. I can make a lemon aide stand profitable but can’t possibly justify a SiliconValley-type CapValue. Their market penetration is bounded by the cost of the driver. There simply aren’t enough low cost gig workers trying to make ends meet. In their operation, scale is accompanied by a monotonically increasing driver cost or (likely…and) a monotonically decreasing price per mile. Both the increase and dilute the $0.50 they currently take. If they’re not profitable @ $0.50, how can they be profitable at > $0.50? At best they remain a nice niche player(combined they serve way less than 1% of the trips.) or they are dead.
but I remain optimistic….
Wrt aTaxis, I and some others in NJ are focused on New Jersey and the Trentons of this country/world. We seem to have a slightly different view of this world than you in California. California… car culture in spades! New Jersey… car culture, take it or leave it! This difference may enable an initial spark in Trenton to ignite a state-wide and NE region-wide economically thriving aTaxi deployment… or that is what I’m betting on.
Trenton has 70% of HH with 1 or fewer cars. We have “rural” poor in NJ that spend 80% of their disposable income on a car, because they are stuck living on inexpensive land (Where is inexpensive land… you know the answer…). Plus aTaxis are so infinitely better than NJ Transit buses that NJ’s poor will really appreciate the service. That’s what I’m betting on. Of course I then need the New Jersians that look like the folks in Chandler and SV to then say… “Hey, I want that too…” (And I need to watch over the operation to make sure that the aTaxi operator doesn’t abandon my Trentonians in favor of those SVs).
Again… nice article. Alain
Oct. 25, “Hertz, the car rental agency, said on Monday that it had placed an order for 100,000 Teslas, a sign of growing momentum in the shift to electric vehicles. The order, which is expected to be delivered by the end of next year, would give Hertz one of the world’s largest fleets of rental electric vehicles.
Hertz, which emerged from bankruptcy over the summer, said it was teaming up with football quarterback Tom Brady to promote its E.V. offerings……” Read more Hmmmm… Certainly a smart move for both to get print, but until those that rent cars using using Other People’s Money (OPM) start traveling again instead of using Zoom, the rental car industry, especially Hertz, is substantially challenged. Alain
J. Bursztynsky, Oct. 27, “Uber announced early Wednesday that Hertz, which just ordered 100,000 Teslas, will supply half of that fleet by 2023 to Uber drivers who want to rent the cars….” Read more Hmmmm…Either way good for Tesla in that many more people can experience a Tesla.
Good for Gig workers??? Can they really afford to rent cars from Hertz? If they could, they would have in the past. If they can’t then either Uber or Hertz or both is/are subsidizing this initiative. That means one or both are going to be more unprofitable. Be careful, there may be mirrors all around this deal. Alain
E. Dey, Oct 25, “….“Tesla shares have a tendency to be quite volatile and driven by a wide range of market forces that are difficult to comprehend,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas wrote in a note. Jonas said he believes Tesla shares are worth $1,200, but he doesn’t have any expectation that the shares will rise to such a level in the near term….” Read more Hmmmm… In case you’ve been in a comma… Alain
A. Hawkins, Oct. 28, “….“We wanted to improve the customer experience,” Farley said. “So we pushed it back in terms of an OTA because we want it to be much simpler for the customer than was originally planned. And that takes a little planning to consolidate. Often these Level 2 systems require multiple updates to the car. We want it to be very simple. That took a little bit more work on our team’s part.”… ” Read more Hmmmm… Not surprising. Alain
M. Slovick, Mar. 19, 2021, “Tesla’s Autopilot and Cadillac’s Super Cruise can do some of these things, but both of those systems and others currently on the market require the driver’s attention in all situations. With Honda’s level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot, the driver and the system “will share the driving task,”… Read more Hmmmm…What???? Tesla & Cadillac require the driver’s attention in all situations. With Honda the driver & the system share the driving task? Interesting use of words largely in the “Elon tradition”. Don’t say something explicitly that you really can’t do (allow the driver to not pay attention). Just use works that leads the reader to imagine that it is OK to do that. .
The automobile industry’s business case is founded on the driver accepting the burden of operating the vehicle to get it from point A to point B and having that driver accept all the legal and financial responsibilities incurred while driving from A to B. One of the elegant beauties of that business model, from a driver’s perspective, both of those elements, driving and liability, are perceive to cost nothing when one is driving one’s self. If someone else is driving, other than friends&family, then these cost become explicit even though they have, in reality, not changed.
Key here is what is not said above… that Honda will (gladly) accept the responsibility for any bad eventuality that derives from when the system was doing the driving. If Honda wishes to accept that responsibility then they are sharing in the driving and it is a Level 3. If not, this is just like everyone else’s. Not Level 3. Alain
5th Annual SmartDrivingCars Summit: Deployment of Equitable Affordable, High Quality Mobility throughout New Jersey
Date Change: Thursday evening, May 5, through Saturday May 7, 2022. Live in Trenton, New Jersey.
“Everything” was going well wrt the 5th Summit Nov 18->20; however…
Time is very short, we must focus on the election and the realities of where we remain with Covid really put cold water on some aspects of our vision for November.
Consequently. I’ve become convinced that it is very much better, that we take our time and reschedule for the first week on May 2022 rather than rush for what isn’t as good as could be.
By May we will have received responses to our upcoming RfI for “Equitable … Mobility in Trenton”. We will thus have a better idea on “Who”, from the “What & How” communities, “Want & Can” Deploy “Equitable … Mobility” starting in Trenton with real expectations of scaling throughout New Jersey.
In May the 5th Summit can better achieve its fundamental purpose by allowing all of us in New Jersey to better learn from others around the world the “Whats & Hows” and have the possible “Whos” get a better appreciation of the “Equitable … Mobility” desires of Trentonians and other New Jersians.
Rescheduling the Summit to be between the RfI and the RfP steps of our Public-Private-Partnership (PPP) Deployment Process, will better enable our Community Engagement initiative to shape our ultimate deployment. We’ll thus deliver even better mobility equitably and best improve quality-of-life in Trenton and throughout New Jersey.
Please pencil into your calendar the new dates of May 5 (Thursday evening) though May 7 (Trenton Mobility Festival Saturday). 😎 Please let me know if these dates work for you.
Sorry about the delay, but many will be relieved by this change. Plus, early May is really nice in NJ.😁
This 5th Summit is inspired by the many levels of public-sector, community and neighborhood welcoming and support that now exists in New Jersey for the deployment of equitable, affordable, high-quality mobility. This is now made possible by automated driving technology that is especially targeted to serve those who, for whatever reason, don’t have access to their own personal car.
The Princeton SDC Summits were initiated in 2017 to provide a venue for the open discussion of how technology, in particular automation, can be shaped to improve mobility of people and goods between and within cities. Early on, we realized that this form of mobility could easily provide yet another alternative to those who are fortunate enough to enjoy one or many high quality mobility options.
But, more importantly, it became obvious that substantial improvement in quality-of-life and equitable mobility can readily be made available to the un-served and under-served. Those who cannot drive themselves, cannot afford the transport alternatives that exist for them, or who live in areas where, for either economic or other reasons, neither public nor private desirable forms of transport are offered. Furthermore, such initial Operational Design Domains (OODs) can be readily expanded and replicated to allow the vast investments continuing to be made in this technology to actually yield their envisioned societal and financial benefits.
The recently completed 4th Summit set the groundwork for these initial deployments to benefit under-served communities. Communities with many households having access to one or fewer cars and with challenged transit alternatives. We concluded the 4th Summit by envisioning a deployment throughout Trenton, NJ, a community where 70% of the households have access to one or fewer cars.
We believe that Trenton is a perfect ODD to begin to deliver Equitable, Affordable, High-quality Mobility, in addition to being environmentally responsible, safe and comfortable.
The opportunity to expand throughout Mercer County and replicate this deployment scenario throughout the State exists. This deployment will serves as a blueprint for the future for many other “Trentons” of this world.
The groundwork set by the 4th Summit and the NJ Autonomous Vehicle Task Force has enabled us to create a “most welcoming environment” in New Jersey for creating a Public-Private Partnership to deliver this enhanced mobility to the residents of Trenton and all New Jersians. The 5th Summit will focus directly on deployment in Trenton and will take place in Trenton. We also envision its expansion throughout Mercer County and its replication in and around New Jersey’s other major cities.
The Technical portion of the summit will be in the morning, through lunch, of Friday, May 6 and Saturday, May 7.
Sessions will be free of charge but will require advance registration, as seating will be limited.
The Societal portion focused on engaging the customers of this form of mobility, featuring descriptions, discussions, interactions, exhibits and technology demonstrations, will be free and open to the public, with preference given to Trenton residents on Friday and residents of Mercer County and the rest of New Jersey on Saturday. Link to Sponsorship Opportunities Link to Draft Program Link to Registration
C’mon Man! (These folks didn’t get/read the memo)
Re-see: Pop Up Metro USA Intro 09 2020
K. Pyle, April 18, “It’s time to hit the start button,” is Fred Fishkin’s succinct way of summarizing the next steps in the Smart Driving Car journey. Fiskin, along with the LA Times’ Russ Mitchell co-produced the final session of the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit, Making It Happen: Part 2. This 16th and final session in this multi-month online conference not only provided a summary of the thought-provoking speakers, but also provided food for thought on a way forward to bring mobility to “the Trentons of the World.”
Setting the stage for this final session, Michael Sena provided highlights of the Smart Driving Car journey that started in late December 2020. Safety, high-quality, and affordable mobility, particularly for those who do not have many options, was a common theme to the 2021 Smart Driving Car Summit. As Princeton Professor Kornhauser, the conference organizer put it,…..” Read more Hmmmm…. We had another excellent Session. Thank you for the summary, Ken! Alain
Ken Pyle‘s Session Summaries of 4th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit:
15th Session Making it Happen – Part One: Elected Officials’ Role in Creating a Welcoming Environment in the Trentons of this World
Kornhauser & He, April 2021 “Making it Happen: A Proposal for Providing Affordable, High-quality, On-demand Mobility for All in the “Trentons” of this World”
Orf467F20_FinalReport “Analyzing Ride-Share Potential and Empty Repositioning Requirements of a Nationwide aTaxi System“
Kornhauser & He, March 2021 “AV 101 + Trenton Affordable HQ Mobility Initiative“
Calendar of Upcoming Events
5th Annual Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
Saturday, May 7, Equitable Mobility Festival (Open to All)
Live in Person
R. Shields, 22 – 25 March, “Recordings from the conference:
Session 1 plus opening: (Regulatory): https://youtu.be/UcDC8gXiUFk
Session 2: (Cybersecurity): https://youtu.be/ppp2hxlvebY
Session 3: (Automated Driving Systems): https://youtu.be/uL2dRHuX2Cc
Session 4: (Communications for ADS) : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IFQcL6yfBso
Read more Hmmmm… Russ, thank you for sharing! Alain
These editions re sponsored by the SmartETFs Smart Transportation and Technology ETF, symbol MOTO. For more information head to www.motoetf.com
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 238, Zoom-Cast Episode 238 w/Chunk Mui, Futurist
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, “With his new book “A Brief History of a Perfect Future..Inventing the World We Can Proudly Leave Our Kids by 2050“, author and futurist Chunka Mui informs us how rapidly advancing technology can solve many problems including mobility and transportation. The questions? And a surprise offer from Chunka (keep watching) …in Episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or you can listen to episode 238 of Smart Driving Cars”.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 237, Zoom-Cast Episode 237 Aurora aTaxi & aTrucking
F. Fishkin,Oct 18, “Aurora is planning subscription services for autonomous trucking & ride hailing. Passenger buttons to stop and start are part of Motional’s planned self driving taxi experience. And Tesla’s Texas insurance rates to be based on real time driving behavior. Plus more in Episode 237 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 236, Zoom-Cast Episode 236 w/Russ Mitchell, LA Times Staff Writer
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “The Tesla automatic braking mystery. Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin to to explore the questions surrounding automatic emergency braking in Teslas and other cars. The systems have to work before there can be autonomous mobility. Plus GM unveils Ultra Cruise, the 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit moves to May and actor William Shatner prepares for liftoff.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 235, Zoom-Cast Episode 235 w/Michael Sena, Editor, The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Sept. 30, “So what is a car company? Appearances can be deceiving. Join The Dispatcher publisher & consultant Michael Sena on Episode 235 of Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Plus much more on the upcoming summit and mobility for all… “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 234, Zoom-Cast Episode 234 1st Preview of 5th Princeton SmartDrivingCar Summit
F. Fishkin, Sept. 26, “Tesla reportedly has built 300 thousand cars in Shanghai so far this year despite the chip shortage. FedEx & Aurora partner for autonomous trucking in Texas. And dramatic developments in advance of the upcoming 5th annual Princeton Smart Driving Car Summit. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. Tune in to Smart Driving Cars… and subscribe..”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 233, Zoom-Cast Episode 233 w Prof. Adriano Alessandrini at the U. of Florence
F. Fishkin, Sept. 18 “What will it take to deliver autonomous mobility for all? For one thing, improved road systems, says Professor Adriano Alessandrini at the University of Florence. The author of The Role of Infrastructure for a Safe Transition to Automated Driving joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a spirited discussion on that, plus Waymo and new details on bringing new mobility to New Jersey and the upcoming Princeton Smart Driving Car
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 232, Zoom-Cast Episode 232 w Steven Shladover
F. Fishkin, Sept. 4 “Cameras alone aren’t enough to get Tesla or anyone else to driverless mobility. So says UC Berkeley’s Steven Shladover, a leading autonomous vehicle research engineer. He joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that plus the need for more regulation from Washington, Waymo, Cruise, Toyota, Motional and more. Watch or listen to Smart Driving Cars Episode 232 and subscribe!”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 231, Zoom-Cast Episode 231 w Michael Sena, Creator of The Dispatcher
F. Fishkin, Aug 27, “What’s wrong with the concept of building electric vehicles on a skateboard type platform? Consultant and The Dispatcher publisher Michael Sena joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for that…plus Tesla, Waymo and more. And the next Princeton Smart Driving Cars Summit is on the way. Watch or listen…and subscribe! Or listen.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 230, Zoom-Cast Episode 230 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, Aug 21, “Teslas, Humanoids and Elevators! What Elon Musk and Tesla delivered at AI Day 2021 was insight into the company’s remarkable technology and that may boost recruiting efforts. So says Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser who is joined by co-host Fred Fishkin and guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal, author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. AI Day, the NHTSA investigation and Elon Musk hops on the elevator on Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars!
Or you can listen to Episode 230 of Smart Driving Cars on Tesla’s AI Day and more with guest Tim Higgins of the Wall Street Journal ..author of POWER PLAY… Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 229, Zoom-Cast Episode 229 w/Russ Mitchell, Los Angeles Times
F. Fishkin, Aug 18, “With the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration having opened an investigation into Tesla autopilot crashes involving emergency vehicles…Los Angeles Times reporter Russ Mitchell joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a look at the issues facing Tesla and other vehicle makers.”
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 228, Zoom-Cast Episode 228 Planes, Trains & Automobiles
F. Fishkin, Aug 13, “Planes, trains and automobiles. From battery powered electric light rail to the confusion over the difference between driver assistance and self driving to Amazon’s new 1.5 billion dollar U.S. air cargo hub…the focus is on the latest in mobility. Join Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for episode 228 of Smart Driving Cars. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 226, Zoom-Cast Episode 226 w/Tim Higgins, author: POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century
F. Fishkin, July 22, “The Wall Street Journal’s Tim Higgins has a new book arriving August 3rd titled POWER PLAY: Tesla, Elon Musk and the Bet of the Century. You can bet it’s a lively discussion with Tim on the latest Smart Driving Cars with Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin. Or listen.. https://soundcloud.com/smartdrivingcar/smart-driving-cars-226-with-tim-higgins-author-of-power-play.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 225, Zoom-Cast Episode 225 w/Kevin Biesty, Deputy Director for Policy @ Arizona DoT
F. Fishkin, July 22, “Chandler, Arizona is the one place where paying customers can take advantage of driverless robo-taxis (from Waymo) to get where they are going. How did that happen? What does the future hold? Kevin Biesty, Arizona’s Deputy Director for Policy at the Department of Transportation, joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for an in depth discussion. Plus.. Ford, Argo, Lyft, Tesla, Mercedes & more. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 224, Zoom-Cast Episode 224 w/Selika Josiah Talbot, Principal, Autonomous Vehicle Consulting
F. Fishkin, July 19, “Does there need to be a White House appointed autonomous and electric vehicle czar to open up new mobility possibilities for all? That’s the view of Selika Josiah Talbott..a government veteran who now heads Autonomous Vehicle Consulting and lectures at American University. She joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser & co-host Fred Fishkin for a deeper look at how the technology can be deployed to improve lives.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 223, Zoom-Cast Episode 223 w/Richard Mudge, Compass Transp. & Baruch Feigenbaum, Reason Foundation
F. Fishkin, July 15, “Can Tesla (and others) make automatic emergency braking work? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser continues his push and is joined by the Reason Foundation’s Baruch Feigenbaum and Compass Transportation & Technology President Dick Mudge along with co-host Fred Fishkin to explore this week’ss Transportation Research Board sessions. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 222, Zoom-Cast Episode 222
F. Fishkin, July 11, “Is it time for autopilot to not break the law? Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser says yes. And if technology can save lives, prevent injuries and crashes shouldn’t it? Plus Richard Branson, Jeff Bezos, Waymo, VW and more on Episode 222 of Smart Driving Cars with co-host Fred Fishkin. “
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 221, Zoom-Cast Episode 221 w/Mark Rosekind, Chief Safety Innovation Officer, Zoox
F. Fishkin, July 1, “With Zoox the Amazon owned autonomous mobility company out with a comprehensive safety report.. Chief Safety Innovation Officer Dr. Mark Rosekind joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin. What is so different about the Zoox approach to building a vehicle and safety? What is the company’s vision for future mobility and transportation. Dr. Rosekind fills us in on those issues and more.
SmartDrivingCars Pod-Cast Episode 220, Zoom-Cast Episode 220 w/John Thornhill, Innovation Editor, Financial Times
F. Fishkin, July 1, “Sociology not technology will decide the electric car race. That’s a Financial Times headline from a piece written by Innovation Editor John Thornhill…who joins Princeton’s Alain Kornhauser and co-host Fred Fishkin for a lively discussion on that…plus Tesla…autonomous mobility and more. John is also the founder of Sifted.eu.
Recent Highlights of:
K. Long, Oct 19, “… But an announcement Monday from Amazon’s self-driving car unit Zoox that it will soon start testing its autonomous vehicles in downtown Seattle drew criticism from transportation-safety advocates. The early promise of the technology, they said, has been overshadowed by a string of crashes and near-misses, due in part to lax oversight of the rapidly growing sector…” Read more Hmmmm… First news out of the box from the home town paper is this?? So discouraging. You just can’t win. 😭 Alain
R. Mitchel, Oct 7, “Compared with so-called advanced driver assistance systems such as Autopilot, a forward collision avoidance system is relatively crude. It is designed to answer one question — is a frontal impact imminent? — and respond to danger by sounding a warning and, if necessary, triggering a subsystem called automatic emergency braking. Unlike Autopilot, which must be selected manually and is available only under some driving conditions, automatic emergency braking runs by default unless manually turned off….
Tesla calls its vehicles “the safest cars in the world,” citing their combination of structural engineering and advanced technology. But when it comes to the forward collision avoidance system, Tesla owners have been reporting problems at a substantially elevated rate compared with similarly equipped cars….
“Teslas are running into stationary objects,” said Alain Kornhauser, who heads the driverless car engineering program at Princeton University. “They shouldn’t be.” If the company’s cars can’t avoid crash scenes marked by flares or traffic cones, he said, “how can you trust anything else they do with Autopilot?”…
One possibility, according to Missy Cummings, a former Navy fighter pilot who studies human-machine interaction at Duke University, is that Autopilot is designed to preempt or suppress emergency braking to minimize what’s known as phantom braking.
“I haven’t seen the code to say how Tesla works, but I suspect the AEB is turned off in some situations,” she said. “If it were left on it may detect what are called phantom objects and would be slamming on the brakes.”… ” Read more Hmmmm… This story is great and is not what anyone else has written. Thank you, Russ, for doing all of the research and hard work that you put into this article.
I agree with Missy, (I haven’t seen the code either), but, rest assured, a perception algorithm is part of each of Tesla’s automated systems that “drive” their cars some of the time, be it its forward collision avoidance system (FCAS), autoPilot or FSD. They may each have its own or the best one is used in all three, but each has an FCAS; else, Teslas would never know to invoke any of the driving sub-tasks, like slow down or speed up or stay in the lane, or don’t hit me, or … If a Tesla perception system detects an objects that doesn’t exist and locates it as being in the lane ahead, i.e. a “stationary phantom object in the lane ahead”, then that perception system will signal to the automated driving system… to slow down and don’t hit it. If Tesla’s human driver is paying attention to what is going on and, of course, doesn’t see the phantom object (it is phantom = not real), then the alert driver is justified in losing trust that FCAS, autoPilot or FSD is reliable and won’t kill. The erosion of that trust leads to complaints, demands for refunds and substantial problems for Tesla.
Tesla has simply gotten ahead of itself in trying to get to Driverless too quickly, rather than making sure that Automated Emergency Braking (AEB) works better than “good enough”. My guess is, Tesla perception algorithm simply ignores stationary objects detected in the lane ahead and those detected to be to the side of the lane ahead.
Ignoring detected stationary objects is perfectly appropriate when following a car ahead. The car ahead didn’t crash into that detected stationary object ahead, so the coast is clear! I’ll be able to pass under/to the side/over it too! If the car ahead crashes into that object, Its sudden deceleration is readily perceived by the trailing Tesla’s AEB. As long as the Tesla has not been tailgating (which a good AEB should disallow), the Tesla should be able to stop in time to avoid crashing into the new pileup ahead. All easy, and likely not the scenario in any of the NHTSA crash investigations.
Not so easy if the Tesla is the lead vehicle, especially if the vehicle that the Tesla was following suddenly changes lanes and is no longer explicitly confirming that the Tesla’s road ahead is traversable, It is now the Tesla’s job to determine if it can pass under a stationary object in the lane ahead. That is simply not easy to do reliably. Not easy to determine the clearance under an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy while approaching said overpass/… at any significant speed. If the object is classified as an overpass/sign/traffic light/tree canopy, the chance are really good that “passing under” is a breeze. However, if classification of the object is uncertain, then all bets are off.
I strongly suspect that Tesla’s perception algorithm disregards all stationary objects ahead when leading as well as when following. NHTSA has to tell Tesla to not do that any more!!! Tesla must go back, essentially to the beginning, and figure out how to reliably determine if it can pass under, beside or over stationary objects detected in the road ahead. Alain
A. Hawkins, Sep 30, “Waymo and Cruise, two of the leading autonomous vehicle companies in the US, received permits from the California Department of Motor Vehicles to offer rides to passengers in their robotaxis.
But while Cruise was approved to give rides in its fully driverless vehicles without safety drivers, Waymo only is allowed to deploy its autonomous vehicles with a human monitor behind the wheel. In order to give rides to paying passengers in its fully driverless vehicles, as it does in Arizona, the Google spinoff would need to apply for an additional permit from the California Public Utilities Commission. … ” Read more Hmmmm… Congratulations Kyle, Robert and everyone else!!!! This is a non-trivial accomplishment!
Given all of the additional knocks on your door that will naturally come your way, we hope that you’ll keep us in mind. We here in NJ have assembled an enormously welcoming and realistic environment for Deployment to a customer base that will fundamentally benefit and cherish the Equitable, Affordable, High-Quality, Safe Mobility that is delivered by your Driverless Technology.
Hopefully you’ll divert a little bandwidth to our upcoming “5th Annual SDC Summit“, New Jersey’s next step in our process to help you and possibly others get to where you’ve gotten in California.
We are new kids on the block, but we’ve really gotten our act together to work with you and others to catch up quickly and really improve the quality-of-life for many here in New Jersey, and the rest of the NorthEast.
Again… Congratulations! So pleased and so well deserved! Alain
Alain L. Kornhauser, PhD
Professor, Operations Research & Financial Engineering
Director of Undergraduate Studies, ORFE
Director, Transportation Program
Faculty Chair, Princeton Autonomous Vehicle Engineering
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